Lines continue to be blurred but the die seems to have been cast. The coalition of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Jammu and Kashmir may not be quite over but the two parties have never had chemistry since they entered into an alliance in March 2015. PDP founder and former chief minister, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, himself called it an alliance of the north pole and south pole, thus giving his detractors a reason to call it “unholy”. Mufti’s only logic was that he did not want to isolate Jammu that had given the BJP 25 out of 36 seats. The PDP had 25 seats from the Kashmir valley and three from the Muslim-majority Pir Panchal region in Jammu. So to keep the state united, according to Mufti, this was the only way to go about forming a government. At the end of two years, it looks like the state is united but it is politically weak and disempowered.
Conclusions about the fate of this coalition were drawn after Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on April 24 to apparently draw the centre’s attention towards the grim situation in Kashmir and the importance of opening a channel for dialogue. What she told the media afterwards did not indicate any such assurance. She just stated that the next two to three months were crucial for a deadline to set things right or “be ready for a pack-up”. It is difficult to decipher what she said in absence of any explanation from her or her party but tongues went wagging about a possible change in the political landscape of the state in the coming months. The BJP, for its part, downplayed the differences with its coalition partner only to give the impression that the journey was bumpy but at the same time smooth.
In view of this continuous denial, pressure is obviously building on her to make a call. The government that cannot hold elections will have no magical way to restore law and order without any substantial outreach that would hold a promise of recognizing the political nature of the problem.
However, when Mehbooba returned to Srinagar she called two important meetings of her party—one of the core group (comprising senior leaders and ministers) and the other of legislators. If the assessment of those who attended these meetings are to be believed, the PDP is uneasy about this coalition, given how the BJP has been treating it. Stressing the importance of dialogue to see a change, Mehbooba was quoted to have said that she would quit as chief minister if there were no such move. In fact, what has transpired in these meetings is the deep sense of helplessness and hopelessness with which the PDP is holding fort. While the lowest turnout in the recently held by-elections for a Srinagar parliamentary seat made the miserable position of mainstream parties clear, it also brought to the fore how bad administratively the situation was.
The rise of the PDP on the political landscape was phenomenal. Its policy of siding with the people and even eating into the space of the separatists was something that made it a political force that could even dislodge the oldest party, the National Conference. Showing sympathy with the victims of state violence was something that was not found in the mainstream primer. It was Mehbooba herself who made inroads into the separatist constituency to emerge as the voice of those who had been victimized by state repression. But after the PDP allied with the BJP, its graph went down just in a flash. The BJP was known to be a party against the interests of Kashmir and making it part of the power structure could only have been possible with the help of a mainstream party from Kashmir. Mufti did it, reposing too much faith in PM Modi and his “strong mandate”. In a way, he overestimated Modi and his vision because the policy he followed on Kashmir is flawed and framed in a particular mindset that does not go beyond the security and law and order prism. He only invokes former Prime Minister AB Vajpayee on “insaniyat, Kashmiriyat and Jamhooriyat” but does not move in that direction.
However, from day one, the BJP started discrediting its partner. When Mufti talked about separatists and Pakistan helping to see the assembly elections through, he got a rebuke. He was forced to send back to jail Massarat Alam, the face of the 2010 agitation, when parliament went crazy over his release. On November 7, 2015, Prime Minister Modi put him down when he had advocated talks with Pakistan and Modi said, “I don’t need anybody’s advice on how to deal with Pakistan”. Mufti had arranged a strong crowd for Modi who could not have imagined Kashmiris lined up for him in the cricket stadium.
Although both parties came to power on an agreement called the Agenda of Alliance (AoA), as far as the PDP and its political doctrine is concerned, it has been left high and dry. In two years only issues concerning the BJP and its manifesto have been vigorously followed and implemented. They include the recognition of the West Pakistan Refugees, the rehabilitation of refugees from the other side of Kashmir and relief measures for Kashmiri Pandits. The vital political issues on which the BJP had agreed with the PDP have not been touched and have rather been negated. For example, the AoA, on the engagement of Pakistan and the Hurriyat reads as, “The Union Government has recently initiated several steps to normalize the relationship with Pakistan. The coalition government will seek to support and strengthen the approach and initiatives taken by the government to create a reconciliatory environment and build stakes for all in the peace and development within the sub-continent. The earlier NDA government led by Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee had initiated a dialogue process with all political groups, including the Hurriyat Conference, in the spirit of ‘Insaaniyat, Kashmiriyat aur Jamhooriyat’. Following the same principles, the coalition government will facilitate and help initiate a sustained and meaningful dialogue with all internal stakeholders, which will include all political groups irrespective of their ideological views and predilections. This dialogue will seek to build a broad-based consensus on resolution of all outstanding issues of J&K”. So anything that Mehbooba is asking is very much within the framework of the AoA and to give a notice to first restore peace does not fit with political expediency.
In view of this continuous denial, pressure is obviously building on her to make a call. The government that cannot hold elections will have no magical way to restore law and order without any substantial outreach that would hold a promise of recognizing the political nature of the problem. More than the discomfort Mehbooba is feeling from the BJP, her own party is not in order. Lobbyism has marred it. And if the reports from Delhi are given any credence, today (as with early 2016) some of her party members are ready to support the BJP to continue the government in case she decides otherwise. But the louder message within the party is that it must assert and show to Delhi that it won’t compromise on its political agenda as it has already been discredited to a level where from resurrection is difficult. Will Mehbooba really make a call to be in a position to be back with the people?
(This piece is exclusive to our online edition)
The writer is a senior journalist based in Srinagar (Kashmir) and can be reached at shujaat7867@gmail.com