After enjoying almost 10 years of stability during the Musharraf era, the MQM has fallen into one controversy after another since the murder of Dr Imran Farooq in 2008. Since then, the party has joined and left the provincial government several times, had money laundering cases investigated by the Scotland Yard, broke into several factions, and has been at loggerheads with the military establishment. Although the party has a history of turbulence over the last three decades, this time the situation is grimmer than it ever was. The party’s hold on its electorate has weakened and fewer workers are ready to oppose the military as they did in the 1990s. As chaos ensued in urban Sindh during the 1990s, MQM-controlled neighborhoods erected protective boundaries against law-enforcement agencies and ordinary citizens readily provided shelter to MQM activists. This time however, the situation is quite different and even the party cadres are not ready to put up a tough fight with the state agencies.
There are many reasons for this decline in support for the MQM, but probably the most important factor is the rapidly changing demographics of cities such as Karachi and Hyderabad. Since 2000, an unprecedented number of urban Sindh dwellers have gained college education and moved up in the socio-economic strata. This was helped by a peak in high-paying jobs in the Middle East (backed by a hike in gas prices) as well as an increase in opportunities in the banking, telecommunication, construction, and multinational sectors of Pakistan. Unlike their jobless and under-employed counterparts in the 1990s, the Urdu-speaking men in their teens and early 20s of today do not feel marginalized. As a result, instead of the rebellious MQM, they identify with pro-state political parties such as the PTI or the military itself. Even though these young professionals form a relatively small minority in urban Sindh, their absence from its ranks hurts the MQM when it comes to strengthening its political ideology and propagating its discourse.
The Urdu-speaking masses on the other hand, still support the party, but are tired of activism and are spoiled by a peaceful decade and a half. The current chaos in the MQM is a combination of these changing realities and a refusal on the part of Altaf Hussain to realize how much his constituency has evolved over the years. He is increasingly getting frustrated at not being able to order a complete shut-down of Karachi over the phone or getting away with humiliating his second-tier leadership. As Altaf Hussain’s direct control over his party wanes, his second-tier leadership feels more comfortable in asserting its control over the party.
The first such rebel to emerge was Karachi’s ex-mayor, Mustafa Kamal. He chose the perfect time to enter the fray when pro-Altaf activists and leaders were being apprehended by the Rangers in droves. The plan was simple, nab as many MQM sympathizers as possible and deliver them to Mustafa Kamal’s Pak Sarzameen Party. This party would then represent urban Sindh, with Kamal controlling Karachi, Anees Qaimkhani in Hyderabad, and Anees Advocate in Mirpurkhas. Although the plan looked great on paper, it failed miserably when Farooq Sattar and other second-tier MQM leadership distanced itself from Altaf Hussain and asserted its independence.
Unlike Mustafa Kamal, Farooq Sattar’s MQM was not tainted by ties with the Establishment and was seen as a viable alternate to Altaf’s MQM for six whole weeks. However, their 15 minutes of fame ended when Altaf Hussain played a master political stroke by installing an alternate Rabita Committee in Karachi. Farooq Sattar’s MQM stopped being relevant from that day onward and he should know that his Awami Rabita Campaign will face a similar fate to what Mustafa Kamal experienced in his Mirpurkhas adventure earlier this year. Even his nominal control over the elected party officials will not help Sattar gain traction over Urdu-speaking votes.
It is not just the timing of Altaf’s Rabita Committee that is impressive, the choice of the committee members is also brilliant. To counter the party’s image of violence and fascism, he chose seasoned, well-respected, and untainted political activists such as Saathi Ishaq, Momin Khan, and Prof. Zafar Arif. These leaders have a long history of grassroots struggle for their leftist, secular, and progressive ideals. Not only are they intellectually sound, they also have remained steadfast against the Establishment throughout their political careers. By pitching them as the new face of the MQM, Altaf Hussain has made it very difficult for the Establishment to obstruct the party from contesting the 2018 elections. The recent arrest of these new MQM leaders is temporary and soon the Establishment will realize that it cannot keep them incarcerated for long, owing to public and legal pressures. In the coming days, Altaf Hussain will attract more leaders from such backgrounds and the Establishment will have to cede political space to his party.
Probably sensing these turn of events, a frustrated Mustafa Kamal and Governor Ishrat-ul-Ibad have locked horns and continue to fight inconsequential battles in the media with nothing to lose or gain. Currently, both are promoting themselves as leaders of the Establishment’s version of the MQM. One important player, however, is conspicuously missing from this entire drama. MQM-Haqiqi’s Afaq Ahmed is holding his cards tightly to his chest and observing the game as it unfolds. He should be pitching himself as the more viable alternate to Mustafa Kamal and Ishrat-ul-Ibad with the establishment, negotiating with Farooq Sattar to merge MQM-Pakistan with MQM-Haqiqi, and considering re-joining MQM-Altaf after apologizing to Altaf Hussain like his colleague Amir Khan. His tilt should become clear in the next couple of months.
Given all the chaos and factionalization in the MQM, the Urdu-speaking masses of urban Sindh are still committed to vote for Altaf Hussain, and this commitment will only get stronger as the Establishment puts more pressure on the new Rabita Committee. A well-meaning Establishment should allow the new Rabita Committee leaders to work freely, as they have the potential to steer the party away from its communal-violent streak into the national mainstream. A use of force against the MQM may allow temporary wins for the Establishment, but will have serious ramifications for Karachi in the long-term.
While Altaf Hussain enjoys electoral support from his constituency, he won’t be able to take advantage of this support if he does not keep himself healthy (physically and mentally). He will also have to refrain from inciting violence against the State. But more importantly, he will have to allow some stability and discretion with the new Rabita Committee. Given his temperament, however, this will be his biggest challenge.
Obed Pasha is lecturer of Public Policy at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. He can be reached at obedpasha@gmail.com or @ramblingsufi
There are many reasons for this decline in support for the MQM, but probably the most important factor is the rapidly changing demographics of cities such as Karachi and Hyderabad. Since 2000, an unprecedented number of urban Sindh dwellers have gained college education and moved up in the socio-economic strata. This was helped by a peak in high-paying jobs in the Middle East (backed by a hike in gas prices) as well as an increase in opportunities in the banking, telecommunication, construction, and multinational sectors of Pakistan. Unlike their jobless and under-employed counterparts in the 1990s, the Urdu-speaking men in their teens and early 20s of today do not feel marginalized. As a result, instead of the rebellious MQM, they identify with pro-state political parties such as the PTI or the military itself. Even though these young professionals form a relatively small minority in urban Sindh, their absence from its ranks hurts the MQM when it comes to strengthening its political ideology and propagating its discourse.
There are many reasons for this decline in support for the MQM, but probably the most important factor is the rapidly changing demographics of cities such as Karachi and Hyderabad. Since 2000, an unprecedented number of urban Sindh dwellers have gained college education and moved up in the socio-economic strata. Unlike their jobless and under-employed counterparts in the 1990s, the Urdu-speaking men in their teens and early 20s of today do not feel marginalized
The Urdu-speaking masses on the other hand, still support the party, but are tired of activism and are spoiled by a peaceful decade and a half. The current chaos in the MQM is a combination of these changing realities and a refusal on the part of Altaf Hussain to realize how much his constituency has evolved over the years. He is increasingly getting frustrated at not being able to order a complete shut-down of Karachi over the phone or getting away with humiliating his second-tier leadership. As Altaf Hussain’s direct control over his party wanes, his second-tier leadership feels more comfortable in asserting its control over the party.
The first such rebel to emerge was Karachi’s ex-mayor, Mustafa Kamal. He chose the perfect time to enter the fray when pro-Altaf activists and leaders were being apprehended by the Rangers in droves. The plan was simple, nab as many MQM sympathizers as possible and deliver them to Mustafa Kamal’s Pak Sarzameen Party. This party would then represent urban Sindh, with Kamal controlling Karachi, Anees Qaimkhani in Hyderabad, and Anees Advocate in Mirpurkhas. Although the plan looked great on paper, it failed miserably when Farooq Sattar and other second-tier MQM leadership distanced itself from Altaf Hussain and asserted its independence.
Unlike Mustafa Kamal, Farooq Sattar’s MQM was not tainted by ties with the Establishment and was seen as a viable alternate to Altaf’s MQM for six whole weeks. However, their 15 minutes of fame ended when Altaf Hussain played a master political stroke by installing an alternate Rabita Committee in Karachi. Farooq Sattar’s MQM stopped being relevant from that day onward and he should know that his Awami Rabita Campaign will face a similar fate to what Mustafa Kamal experienced in his Mirpurkhas adventure earlier this year. Even his nominal control over the elected party officials will not help Sattar gain traction over Urdu-speaking votes.
It is not just the timing of Altaf’s Rabita Committee that is impressive, the choice of the committee members is also brilliant. To counter the party’s image of violence and fascism, he chose seasoned, well-respected, and untainted political activists such as Saathi Ishaq, Momin Khan, and Prof. Zafar Arif. These leaders have a long history of grassroots struggle for their leftist, secular, and progressive ideals. Not only are they intellectually sound, they also have remained steadfast against the Establishment throughout their political careers. By pitching them as the new face of the MQM, Altaf Hussain has made it very difficult for the Establishment to obstruct the party from contesting the 2018 elections. The recent arrest of these new MQM leaders is temporary and soon the Establishment will realize that it cannot keep them incarcerated for long, owing to public and legal pressures. In the coming days, Altaf Hussain will attract more leaders from such backgrounds and the Establishment will have to cede political space to his party.
Probably sensing these turn of events, a frustrated Mustafa Kamal and Governor Ishrat-ul-Ibad have locked horns and continue to fight inconsequential battles in the media with nothing to lose or gain. Currently, both are promoting themselves as leaders of the Establishment’s version of the MQM. One important player, however, is conspicuously missing from this entire drama. MQM-Haqiqi’s Afaq Ahmed is holding his cards tightly to his chest and observing the game as it unfolds. He should be pitching himself as the more viable alternate to Mustafa Kamal and Ishrat-ul-Ibad with the establishment, negotiating with Farooq Sattar to merge MQM-Pakistan with MQM-Haqiqi, and considering re-joining MQM-Altaf after apologizing to Altaf Hussain like his colleague Amir Khan. His tilt should become clear in the next couple of months.
Given all the chaos and factionalization in the MQM, the Urdu-speaking masses of urban Sindh are still committed to vote for Altaf Hussain, and this commitment will only get stronger as the Establishment puts more pressure on the new Rabita Committee. A well-meaning Establishment should allow the new Rabita Committee leaders to work freely, as they have the potential to steer the party away from its communal-violent streak into the national mainstream. A use of force against the MQM may allow temporary wins for the Establishment, but will have serious ramifications for Karachi in the long-term.
While Altaf Hussain enjoys electoral support from his constituency, he won’t be able to take advantage of this support if he does not keep himself healthy (physically and mentally). He will also have to refrain from inciting violence against the State. But more importantly, he will have to allow some stability and discretion with the new Rabita Committee. Given his temperament, however, this will be his biggest challenge.
Obed Pasha is lecturer of Public Policy at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. He can be reached at obedpasha@gmail.com or @ramblingsufi