After the killing of Mullah Akhtar Mansoor in a US drone strike in Balochistan last month, the Afghan Taliban chose Haibatullah Akhundzada as their new leader. Unlike the political Mullah Mansoor, Haibatullah is an elderly cleric and part of the conservative old guard, known for his harsh verdicts as a judge in Kandahar during Mullah Omar’s regime. His key challenge will be keeping his group united and dealing with any dissenting factions. Under his leadership, there is little chance of peace talks in the near future, and Pakistan will not be able to change that, experts and defence analysts say.
“There are two main tasks for him at the moment – to avenge the killing of Mullah Mansoor and to carry on with the policies of his predecessors,” according to Brig (r) Mehmood Shah. Haibatullah was appointed with consensus, and all the leading commanders supported him, says the defence analyst. “He is a religious, scholarly figure and all the commanders respect him. When it comes to warfare, I think he would endorse the decisions of the military commanders in the battlefield.”
According to some recent media reports, the Afghan government may have been giving “financial and military support” to the Mullah Rasool group, a breakaway Taliban faction, using it against the mainstream Taliban movement. The faction, which separated from the Taliban following the appointment of Mullah Akhtar Rasool as the group’s emir last summer, has offered to participate in peace talks with Kabul. Mullah Abdul Manan Niazi, the leader of the group, has claimed that he has the support of around 200 leading commanders.
Brig Mehmood Shah believes the claim is exaggerated, and the faction has no real influence in Afghanistan. “It lost more than 200 of its members while fighting the Taliban in Zabul province last year,” he said.
Mullah Mansoor’s men had also eliminated Mansoor Dadullah, another key dissenter, in November 2015. “These breakaway groups have no power,” the retired brigadier said. “Maulvi Haibatullah has been appointed with consensus, so there are no chances of a rift in the group he is leading.”
Fidai Mahaz, another splinter group headed by Commander Omar Khitab, was against Mullah Mansoor. On May 24, Qari Hamza, the spokesman of the group, congratulated his fighters on the killing of the Taliban emir. But the Fidai Mahaz has neither accepted nor opposed Mullah Haibatullah.
Maulvi Ahmad Rabbani, who heads a group of clerics, had not sworn allegiance to Mullah Mansoor, but did not oppose him either. He was quick to endorse Haibatullah. “Sheikh Hibatullah Akhunzada had no personal interest in becoming the Taliban emir, and only accepted the role after a decision by the Supreme Council and other elders. We, the fellow clerics, pledge our allegiance to him,” Maulvi Ahmad Rabbani said in a statement on May 30.
According to Tahir Khan, a journalist who is observing the emerging situation, Haibatullah’s major challenge would be to control the younger Taliban. “A majority of Taliban fighters have joined the ranks of the group after 9/11,” he told me. “Even some members of the Supreme Council are very young.”
One way he could do that is by making major gains in their ongoing spring offensive, Tahir said.
Brig (r) Saad, a veteran Peshawar-based analyst, believes Pakistan’s influence over Afghan Taliban has gradually declined, and they have also established ties with other states in the region. “Taliban leaders now have bases in Afghanistan where they can hide,” he says. “It doesn’t mean that they don’t need Pakistan at all, but their reliance on Islamabad has been reduced significantly. They have the option of being close to Iran.”
And that is why Brig (r) Saad believes they will not yield to Pakistan’s pressure. “If Islamabad pressures them too much, they will go underground. After he opposed talks with Kabul, Mullah Mansoor too had been out of contact since March 2016.”
He says peace in Afghanistan is possible if Kabul and Islamabad both shun their short term polices. Islamabad thinks India would control everything in Afghanistan if it doesn’t have its way, while a majority of people in the Afghan government do not want good relations with Pakistan. “Historical rivalries and emotional and aggressive decisions have created hurdles in the way of good long-term policy for peace in the region,” he says.
Brig (r) Asad Munir, who has served in senior intelligence positions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA, says it is a misconception that Pakistan controls the Afghan Taliban. “The leadership of Afghan Taliban does not hide in Pakistan,” he says, “and the oath of allegiance to Haibatullah was performed in Paktika, not in Pakistan.”
He believes the Taliban and the Afghan government will eventually return to the negotiations table. “US and Afghan forces failed to defeat the Taliban, and the Taliban failed to take control of any major cities. Only if they capture around 50% of Afghan territory will they be in a position to demand a major share in government,” he says. “This is neither a war for the imposition of Sharia, nor a war for Islam. It is a tussle for power that is the history of Afghanistan.”
Brig (r) Said Nazir, an analyst and a senior associate at the Institute of Policy Studies, says Pakistan thinks that the US embarrassed it globally and at home. That is why it will not deliver anything for the US. After the killing of Mullah Mansoor, he says, Kabul, Islamabad, the US and the Taliban are all in a state of an indrawn status quo, which may be hard to break. Relations between US and Pakistan are tense, Afghanistan has also gone too far. A dialogue is not likely in the near future, he believes. “They are expecting some splinter groups to come forward and give them some support. If the Taliban would split into factions, they would talk to each faction one by one.” The policy, he says, has not worked so far. The brigadier is also skeptical of the US role recently, and believes it may have been motivated by a fear of Chinese influence. “There are all kinds of indications that this tug of war will continue.”
“There are two main tasks for him at the moment – to avenge the killing of Mullah Mansoor and to carry on with the policies of his predecessors,” according to Brig (r) Mehmood Shah. Haibatullah was appointed with consensus, and all the leading commanders supported him, says the defence analyst. “He is a religious, scholarly figure and all the commanders respect him. When it comes to warfare, I think he would endorse the decisions of the military commanders in the battlefield.”
According to some recent media reports, the Afghan government may have been giving “financial and military support” to the Mullah Rasool group, a breakaway Taliban faction, using it against the mainstream Taliban movement. The faction, which separated from the Taliban following the appointment of Mullah Akhtar Rasool as the group’s emir last summer, has offered to participate in peace talks with Kabul. Mullah Abdul Manan Niazi, the leader of the group, has claimed that he has the support of around 200 leading commanders.
Brig Mehmood Shah believes the claim is exaggerated, and the faction has no real influence in Afghanistan. “It lost more than 200 of its members while fighting the Taliban in Zabul province last year,” he said.
Mullah Mansoor’s men had also eliminated Mansoor Dadullah, another key dissenter, in November 2015. “These breakaway groups have no power,” the retired brigadier said. “Maulvi Haibatullah has been appointed with consensus, so there are no chances of a rift in the group he is leading.”
A majority of Taliban fighters are young, and have joined the group after 9/11
Fidai Mahaz, another splinter group headed by Commander Omar Khitab, was against Mullah Mansoor. On May 24, Qari Hamza, the spokesman of the group, congratulated his fighters on the killing of the Taliban emir. But the Fidai Mahaz has neither accepted nor opposed Mullah Haibatullah.
Maulvi Ahmad Rabbani, who heads a group of clerics, had not sworn allegiance to Mullah Mansoor, but did not oppose him either. He was quick to endorse Haibatullah. “Sheikh Hibatullah Akhunzada had no personal interest in becoming the Taliban emir, and only accepted the role after a decision by the Supreme Council and other elders. We, the fellow clerics, pledge our allegiance to him,” Maulvi Ahmad Rabbani said in a statement on May 30.
According to Tahir Khan, a journalist who is observing the emerging situation, Haibatullah’s major challenge would be to control the younger Taliban. “A majority of Taliban fighters have joined the ranks of the group after 9/11,” he told me. “Even some members of the Supreme Council are very young.”
One way he could do that is by making major gains in their ongoing spring offensive, Tahir said.
Brig (r) Saad, a veteran Peshawar-based analyst, believes Pakistan’s influence over Afghan Taliban has gradually declined, and they have also established ties with other states in the region. “Taliban leaders now have bases in Afghanistan where they can hide,” he says. “It doesn’t mean that they don’t need Pakistan at all, but their reliance on Islamabad has been reduced significantly. They have the option of being close to Iran.”
And that is why Brig (r) Saad believes they will not yield to Pakistan’s pressure. “If Islamabad pressures them too much, they will go underground. After he opposed talks with Kabul, Mullah Mansoor too had been out of contact since March 2016.”
He says peace in Afghanistan is possible if Kabul and Islamabad both shun their short term polices. Islamabad thinks India would control everything in Afghanistan if it doesn’t have its way, while a majority of people in the Afghan government do not want good relations with Pakistan. “Historical rivalries and emotional and aggressive decisions have created hurdles in the way of good long-term policy for peace in the region,” he says.
Brig (r) Asad Munir, who has served in senior intelligence positions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA, says it is a misconception that Pakistan controls the Afghan Taliban. “The leadership of Afghan Taliban does not hide in Pakistan,” he says, “and the oath of allegiance to Haibatullah was performed in Paktika, not in Pakistan.”
He believes the Taliban and the Afghan government will eventually return to the negotiations table. “US and Afghan forces failed to defeat the Taliban, and the Taliban failed to take control of any major cities. Only if they capture around 50% of Afghan territory will they be in a position to demand a major share in government,” he says. “This is neither a war for the imposition of Sharia, nor a war for Islam. It is a tussle for power that is the history of Afghanistan.”
Brig (r) Said Nazir, an analyst and a senior associate at the Institute of Policy Studies, says Pakistan thinks that the US embarrassed it globally and at home. That is why it will not deliver anything for the US. After the killing of Mullah Mansoor, he says, Kabul, Islamabad, the US and the Taliban are all in a state of an indrawn status quo, which may be hard to break. Relations between US and Pakistan are tense, Afghanistan has also gone too far. A dialogue is not likely in the near future, he believes. “They are expecting some splinter groups to come forward and give them some support. If the Taliban would split into factions, they would talk to each faction one by one.” The policy, he says, has not worked so far. The brigadier is also skeptical of the US role recently, and believes it may have been motivated by a fear of Chinese influence. “There are all kinds of indications that this tug of war will continue.”