With India aggressively pursuing its ambitions of getting a more prominent role in the world, there is a feeling in Islamabad that an essential element of Delhi’s strategy is to encircle and isolate Pakistan.
These fears have been particularly reinforced by Indian moves in the region, where on the one hand the Modi government is developing close relations with countries in the Arab world that have traditionally been seen as Pakistan’s allies, while on the other it is reinforcing its engagement with Pakistan’s uneasy neighbours like Iran and Afghanistan and the countries in the broader South Asian region.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Tehran on May 22 for starting ‘a new phase’ in India-Iran ties. The visit – during which Mr Modi is expecting to seal the multi-billion dollar agreements on Chabahar Port, investments in Farzad B gas project, construction of International North-South Transport Corridor, the India-Iran gas pipeline and security – comes close on the heels of his highly successful visits to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
While the objective of this engagement is to get a bigger geo-political role at least in the neighbourhood, develop energy and economic ties, and bolster security cooperation, the leaders of the ruling BJP make it no secret that they are working for the ‘grand isolation’ of Pakistan by restricting Islamabad’s sphere of influence.
The Indian policy of reaching out to the Arab world is not exactly new. The process was initiated during Manmohan Singh’s tenure and several defense and counter-terrorism agreements were signed with Gulf countries. But Prime Minister Modi has given a fresh impetus to the strategy, and importantly added a Pakistan dimension to it. Modi’s visit to the UAE was first by an Indian premier in 34 years, and the Riyadh trip was fourth ever to the Kingdom by a prime minister of India. That in itself says a lot about the significance of these contacts.
There are several reasons why India and Arab countries are getting closer. The Arabs see India as an important energy market and a destination for their investment. At the same time, they intend to benefit from the advancements India has made particularly in the IT and services sectors. From the Indian perspective, the relationship is important because these countries are hosting a large Indian expatriate population, are an important source of oil imports, and have a high volume of bilateral trade with Delhi.
But the unsaid part of the script for this engagement is Indian desire to reduce Pakistani influence in these countries and possibly pressure Islamabad through them on issues of concern to India. New Delhi may have achieved initial success on that count if one were to look at the statements issued after Modi’s visits to the two countries, both of which endorsed Delhi’s terrorism concerns.
India may not be able to achieve a major breakthrough overnight in terms of Pakistan losing its influence in the Arab world, but it must be worrisome for Pakistani diplomats that Delhi has successfully penetrated into what was once seen as its exclusive domain.
One should not lose sight of the fact that the intensification of this engagement coincided with the period during which Pakistan’s relations with Arab countries were not at their best after Islamabad refused to be a gun-for-hire.
Pakistan refused to be a gun-for-hire
India has, moreover, been actively working on its SAARC-minus-one strategy for economically integrating the region without Pakistan, and has already carved out a sub-region by formalizing the Motor Vehicles Agreement (MVA) between India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh for promotion and facilitation of passenger and cargo vehicular traffic among the four South Asian neighbours. India is also developing South Asia Satellite. Islamabad likely stayed out these projects deliberately because of its own reservations, but the very fact that India went ahead with these two initiatives without Pakistan reveals its intentions.
Prime Minister Modi is also the first Indian prime minister to have visited all five Central Asian states. Concerns in Islamabad about encirclement and containment by India notwithstanding, Pakistan’s foreign policy establishment seems to have failed to come up with any concerted response to countering the Indian moves.
There are several reasons for that. First, there is complacency within the Pakistani establishment that being one of the most important Muslim countries, which has the world’s sixth largest army and is nuclear armed, it would be nearly impossible for India to isolate Pakistan. Secondly, Pakistan sees its ties with China and the upcoming China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as a guarantee against any attempt to contain it. Furthermore, the government is confident about the personal relations of its leaders with Arab rulers, preventing any Indian move against Pakistan from succeeding.
Saudi Arabia and UAE endorse Delhi’s terrorism concerns
They also know that despite its refusal to participate in the Yemen war, the Arabs continue to look towards Pakistan as a guarantor of their security and India cannot replace Pakistan in that role.
About a year ago, the Pakistani government had held a conference of all the envoys from the region for promoting connectivity amongst the countries in the neighbourhood (though it was not meant to deal with the new challenge from India). There has hardly been any significant effort to implement the recommendations formulated by the conference.
Delhi is pursuing a SAARC-minus-one strategy
A pro-active strategy would serve Pakistan’s interests better. This strategy should center on institutionalizing the relationship with the Arab world instead of keeping it personality based, clarifying the nature of defense and security cooperation to make it more realistic, and avoiding unrealistic expectations that then infuses frustration and a sense of futility in the relationship. Pakistan should also develop trade, energy and connectivity projects with its neighbours.
Most importantly, Islamabad needs to build relationships with other countries independent of their ties with other countries. It should stop looking at Afghanistan through the prism of India, and the relationship with Iran should not be hindered by its cooperation with India or its troubled ties with the GCC countries.
The writer is a freelance journalist based in Islamabad
Email: mamoonarubab@gmail.com
Twitter: @bokhari_mr
I read this article and it leaves me wondering why Pakistan is so paranoid. So what if India is seeking closer trade and security relations with other countries in the region? How does any of that hurt Pakistan? What do you want India to do? Live in a closet? There’s nothing preventing Pakistan from doing the same thing. The author has admitted in the article that India approached Pakistan on some of the SAARC initiatives, but Pakistan said NO. Then he complains India proceeded without Pakistan. If all my friends are going to a movie and they ask me to come, but I say NO, but they still all go and enjoy the movie, do I really have a right to complain after saying NO to them? If I change my mind, I can still go however. So if Pakistan still wants to be a part of the SAARC initiatives, it can still join. It’s not too late. Indian companies can invest billions in Pakistan and provide economic development. Pakistani companies are welcome to do the same in India.
As long as Pakistan remains drunk on the magic elixir of CPEC, it will continue to look away from its own backyard, i.e., India. That is where Pakistan’s economic, social, political, and cultural salvation lie.
China is not known for its generosity to the nations it “helps”. Chinese finance + Chinese workers + Chinese building materials do not an economic miracle make.
Why is author silent about Modi ‘s visit to Lahore and the opening provided by it; for betterment, which was shut by Pathankot adventure by certain elements from across the border. Why call India’s various effort to befriend other countries as encirclement. Finally Pakistan has to learn to stand up on its own, in place of depending on crutches called China.
Pakistan needs only to be a good, orderly nation believing in peaceful coexistence, abiding universal laws, practices and conventions, and not using terror as instrument of state policy. All other things, including relations with India, shall fall in place. EXtremism and terrorism, not India, shall isolate Pakistan at the world stage, apart from damaging from within.I wish good luck to Pakistan.
In the world according to Pakistan,
A. US stops F-16 financing because of India.
B. Afghanistan blames Pakistanis for sheltering Haqqanis at the behest of India.
C. Iran of course lends its territory to anti-Pakistan , by RAW of India.
D. Putin of Russia does not visit Pakistan on account of India.
E. European Nations deport Pakistanis to please India.
“Islamabad likely stayed out these projects deliberately because of its own reservations, but the very fact that India went ahead with these two initiatives without Pakistan reveals its intentions.”
— Yes, the principle is that Pakistan does not get a veto over Indian actions. If I recall correctly, partition occurred because of precisely the same issue – the Muslim League wanted a permanent veto power in a united India.
Well, it ain’t gonna happen.
You refuse join SAARC initiatives n u complain..there is one hindi proverb..chit bhi meri paat bhi mera.
“India is also developing South Asia Satellite. Islamabad likely stayed out these projects deliberately because of its own reservations, but the very fact that India went ahead with these two initiatives without Pakistan reveals its intentions.”
Indeed it does but the intention is not what the author implies. It means India is interested in rapid economic integration with neighbors. If Pakistan joins it is welcome and if it chooses not to, India will not allow Pakistan to veto its own economic plans.
“There are several reasons for that. First, there is complacency within the Pakistani establishment that being one of the most important Muslim countries, which has the world’s sixth largest army and is nuclear armed, it would be nearly impossible for India to isolate Pakistan. ”
What is the relevance of Pakistan being nuclear armed. Does the author imply that Pakistan will use nuclear arms against countries that do not have close ties with it? Who has certified that Pakistan is one of the most important Muslim countries?
“Pakistan should also develop trade, energy and connectivity projects with its neighbours. ”
Honouring contracts that one has signed is part of developing such relations. What happened to the Iran Pakistan pipeline project? Pakistan does not want to give Afghanistan transit to trade with India. Does it realistically expect Afghanistan will co-operate when Pakistan seeks transit to trade with central Asian countries?
these all elements, are relating to isolate Pakistan in the region because despite all approaches towards the peace, India has a craze of becoming the dominant power of Asia, although china is preparing him self for the carnation, then in the mean time what should a country like Pakistan do? he has remain in the world , one thing also Pakistan will never ever become a gun for hire especially for over populated India…