India wants to buy the Predator Avenger from the US seeking to become the first country to import the lethal unmanned aircraft, according to reports.
If Washington agrees, the deal will allow New Delhi significant strategic leverage vis-à-vis China and may cause concerns in Islamabad. This would be the latest manifestation of the strengthening defence ties between India and US, with India now being the second-largest buyer of American arms.
India’s move towards drone technology has been necessitated by Pakistan’s development of its own indigenous armed drone named ‘Burraq’, reports say. Successfully tested on March 13 this year, the Burraq was first used on September 7 in an attack on a Shawal Valley compound, which killed ‘three high profile militants’.
Army chief Gen Raheel Sharif is scheduled to visit the US on November 15, where regional security issues and likely Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are to be discussed, makes the timing of India’s move for Predator Avenger drones all the more intriguing.
“Try as it might, the US is simply unable to pursue relations with Pakistan or India without riling the other, and this is particularly the case in the realm of security cooperation,” says Michael Kugelman senior associate for South and Southeast Asia at the Woodrow Wilson Center. “Whenever Washington announces a new arms or financial package for the Pakistani army, New Delhi reacts unhappily. And whenever Washington announces a new initiative in defense cooperation with India’s military, Islamabad reacts unhappily.”
Kugelman believes US diplomacy toward the subcontinent is a constant and unending delicate dance, but maintains that the growing US-India military ties won’t prove damaging to America’s ties with Pakistan. “The Pakistanis are practical and understand that the Americans value their relationship with India, even if the Pakistanis don’t like it. Also, the Pakistanis value the military aid, both arms and money that they receive from the US, and they won’t want to jeopardize that aid by raising a hue and cry about Washington’s deepening links with India.”
Following the BJP’s return to power in India, this time led by Narendra Modi, India-Pakistan diplomat skirmishes have become frequent. Cross-border firing across the Line of Control (LoC) has also increased, with both sides accusing the other of initiating fire and killing innocent civilians.
How will the drone technology influence the balance across the LoC?
“I can’t see how the use of armed drones by India would change the military calculus on the Line of Control,” says Praveen Swami, the editor for strategic and international affairs at The Indian Express. “First, drones are slow moving and easy to shoot down — they operate today, you’ll note, in areas where there is no challenge from effective air defences. It would make no sense for India to use them in an offensive role against Pakistan. There are more effective delivery platforms for the missiles drones carry, like combat aircraft, for example. India using a drone to fire a missile would have the same consequences as India firing a missile from any other platform. Now, India might conceivably reverse its self-imposed prohibition on the use of air power and deploy drones in counter-insurgency roles, but that wouldn’t affect the India-Pakistan equation in any way that I can see.”
While Swami acknowledges that US supplying armed drones to India would reflect the deepening of their defence ties, he maintains that armed drones aren’t the big prize in such a deal.
“There’s no big deal to slinging a missile under a UAV. It’s the targeting and surveillance electronics in the drones that are significant — and, I assume, might potentially upset Pakistan, which has sought this technology but been denied it.”
Brigadier (r) Mohammad Saad Khan claims that India eying US drones highlights that New Delhi is playing catch up.
“India lags significantly behind Pakistan when it comes to drone technology. Drones have been falling in Pakistan, and with the help of China, we have been able to work our way towards creating armed drones,” he says.
Brig Saad doesn’t believe that the US would be willing to completely transfer Predator and Reaper technology to India.
“Washington might help New Delhi, and provide assistance, but considering the confidentiality surrounding the technology, I don’t think there’s any chance for its transfer.”
He also asserts that any unauthorized drones that India might send across the LoC would be shot down.
“Pakistan has the weapons and technology to do that. We recently shot down an Indian surveillance drone that had penetrated the Pakistani border. Using drones as a cross-border weapon wouldn’t be in anyone’s interest.”
Swami says that a drone isn’t a particularly effective way to deliver a missile in a combat situation anyway, and shrugs off the idea of any potential drone race in the region.
“Where enemy air power or air defences are a threat, they’re not going to be a lot of use. I find this talk of a drone race a bit hyped, for this reason. Their principle use will be as surveillance and missile-delivery systems in environments where there is no threat from adversaries — in insurgencies, for example, or for surveillance. They’re undoubtedly a key technology of the future, and in that sense everyone is racing to incorporate them into their arsenals, but they’re not a strategic game-changer.
Brig Saad disagrees: “I think it becomes important for strategic competitors to get the military technology that their rival has. Just like Indian nuclear blasts in 1974 made it mandatory for Pakistan to get nuclear technology, even if it had to fight the odds. With Pakistan and China now possessing drone technology, India would obviously do all it can to get its hands on armed drones.”
Either way, Kugelman believes Islamabad won’t be too perturbed. “Pakistan can count on the largesse of the Chinese, and to a lesser extent the Russians, for military hardware. For Pakistan, it is the Chinese, not the Americans, that are seen as the permanent ally and trusted arms provider,” he says.
“There’s likely no coincidence that Pakistan has quietly moved closer to Russia on the defense side at the same time that the US and India, a historic defense partner of Russia, have been moving closer together on defense. Pakistan and Russia both seek friends in a dangerous neighborhood, and a marriage of convenience is a very real possibility. We’ve already gotten a hint of this from a recent Pakistan-Russia arms deal.”
If Washington agrees, the deal will allow New Delhi significant strategic leverage vis-à-vis China and may cause concerns in Islamabad. This would be the latest manifestation of the strengthening defence ties between India and US, with India now being the second-largest buyer of American arms.
India’s move towards drone technology has been necessitated by Pakistan’s development of its own indigenous armed drone named ‘Burraq’, reports say. Successfully tested on March 13 this year, the Burraq was first used on September 7 in an attack on a Shawal Valley compound, which killed ‘three high profile militants’.
Army chief Gen Raheel Sharif is scheduled to visit the US on November 15, where regional security issues and likely Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are to be discussed, makes the timing of India’s move for Predator Avenger drones all the more intriguing.
“Try as it might, the US is simply unable to pursue relations with Pakistan or India without riling the other, and this is particularly the case in the realm of security cooperation,” says Michael Kugelman senior associate for South and Southeast Asia at the Woodrow Wilson Center. “Whenever Washington announces a new arms or financial package for the Pakistani army, New Delhi reacts unhappily. And whenever Washington announces a new initiative in defense cooperation with India’s military, Islamabad reacts unhappily.”
Delhi's move follows Pakistan's development of its own armed drone
Kugelman believes US diplomacy toward the subcontinent is a constant and unending delicate dance, but maintains that the growing US-India military ties won’t prove damaging to America’s ties with Pakistan. “The Pakistanis are practical and understand that the Americans value their relationship with India, even if the Pakistanis don’t like it. Also, the Pakistanis value the military aid, both arms and money that they receive from the US, and they won’t want to jeopardize that aid by raising a hue and cry about Washington’s deepening links with India.”
Following the BJP’s return to power in India, this time led by Narendra Modi, India-Pakistan diplomat skirmishes have become frequent. Cross-border firing across the Line of Control (LoC) has also increased, with both sides accusing the other of initiating fire and killing innocent civilians.
How will the drone technology influence the balance across the LoC?
“I can’t see how the use of armed drones by India would change the military calculus on the Line of Control,” says Praveen Swami, the editor for strategic and international affairs at The Indian Express. “First, drones are slow moving and easy to shoot down — they operate today, you’ll note, in areas where there is no challenge from effective air defences. It would make no sense for India to use them in an offensive role against Pakistan. There are more effective delivery platforms for the missiles drones carry, like combat aircraft, for example. India using a drone to fire a missile would have the same consequences as India firing a missile from any other platform. Now, India might conceivably reverse its self-imposed prohibition on the use of air power and deploy drones in counter-insurgency roles, but that wouldn’t affect the India-Pakistan equation in any way that I can see.”
While Swami acknowledges that US supplying armed drones to India would reflect the deepening of their defence ties, he maintains that armed drones aren’t the big prize in such a deal.
“There’s no big deal to slinging a missile under a UAV. It’s the targeting and surveillance electronics in the drones that are significant — and, I assume, might potentially upset Pakistan, which has sought this technology but been denied it.”
Brigadier (r) Mohammad Saad Khan claims that India eying US drones highlights that New Delhi is playing catch up.
“India lags significantly behind Pakistan when it comes to drone technology. Drones have been falling in Pakistan, and with the help of China, we have been able to work our way towards creating armed drones,” he says.
Brig Saad doesn’t believe that the US would be willing to completely transfer Predator and Reaper technology to India.
“Washington might help New Delhi, and provide assistance, but considering the confidentiality surrounding the technology, I don’t think there’s any chance for its transfer.”
He also asserts that any unauthorized drones that India might send across the LoC would be shot down.
“Pakistan has the weapons and technology to do that. We recently shot down an Indian surveillance drone that had penetrated the Pakistani border. Using drones as a cross-border weapon wouldn’t be in anyone’s interest.”
Swami says that a drone isn’t a particularly effective way to deliver a missile in a combat situation anyway, and shrugs off the idea of any potential drone race in the region.
“Where enemy air power or air defences are a threat, they’re not going to be a lot of use. I find this talk of a drone race a bit hyped, for this reason. Their principle use will be as surveillance and missile-delivery systems in environments where there is no threat from adversaries — in insurgencies, for example, or for surveillance. They’re undoubtedly a key technology of the future, and in that sense everyone is racing to incorporate them into their arsenals, but they’re not a strategic game-changer.
Brig Saad disagrees: “I think it becomes important for strategic competitors to get the military technology that their rival has. Just like Indian nuclear blasts in 1974 made it mandatory for Pakistan to get nuclear technology, even if it had to fight the odds. With Pakistan and China now possessing drone technology, India would obviously do all it can to get its hands on armed drones.”
Either way, Kugelman believes Islamabad won’t be too perturbed. “Pakistan can count on the largesse of the Chinese, and to a lesser extent the Russians, for military hardware. For Pakistan, it is the Chinese, not the Americans, that are seen as the permanent ally and trusted arms provider,” he says.
“There’s likely no coincidence that Pakistan has quietly moved closer to Russia on the defense side at the same time that the US and India, a historic defense partner of Russia, have been moving closer together on defense. Pakistan and Russia both seek friends in a dangerous neighborhood, and a marriage of convenience is a very real possibility. We’ve already gotten a hint of this from a recent Pakistan-Russia arms deal.”