Preparing for Cop21

Amir Sajjad is a farmer living in village Chak No. 28 B C, Bahawalpur. He and his fellow farmers were quite unfortunate this year, as their wheat crop yield witnessed a sharp decline of up to 40 per cent in the area.

Amir recalls, “Last year we were able to reap 40-50 maunds per acre but this time it’s just 30-35 maunds per acre. On my land 14 acres, I hoped to reap 650-700 maunds wheat but harvesting just 335 maunds is a serious cause for concern for us. We don’t know how to make both ends meet.”

Amir is illiterate – he was not able to study as he started farming along with his father to make a living but during the past few years he has witnessed a drastic change in weather events. “The summer season came quite early this year and was accompanied by unpredictable rainfall and hailstorms, which were detrimental for the crop. Such extreme weather badly affected our wheat grain thus resulting into lower crop yield than in earlier years.”

Pakistan is the third most affected country by the impacts of climate change

Amir stands amongst millions of farmers in Pakistan whose livelihood is getting affected from climatic changes, but the government seems to be ignorant of its deteriorating impacts. A scientific study conducted by WWF-Pakistan titled Climate Change Adaptation in the Indus Ecoregion: A Micro-Econometric Study of the Determinants, Impact and Cost Effectiveness of Adaptation Strategies has proven that climate change is affecting agricultural output in Pakistan. The report highlights that losses of up to 8 to 10 per cent, equivalent to PKR 30,000 per acre, are expected across all crops (except rice). The report also provides on-farm adaptation measures which can help increase crop yield up to 49 per cent for wheat and 52 per cent for cotton.

Of course the government should translate such scientific information into policy and then disseminate it through farmer field schools. However, inaction on its part has exacerbated the issue and increased the problem of food security for future generations.

COP21 is more important than any other universal agreement

The impacts of climate change are evident not only on agriculture but also on livelihoods, lives and infrastructure. Take floods for instance, which devastate our economy and country, and cost the government billions of dollars each year.

Another study conducted by German Watch Institute has highlighted our vulnerability to climate change in the form of extreme weathering events. The institute has developed a Climate Risk Index, which it calculates every year. Based on data from 2012 it identified Pakistan as the third most affected country by the impacts of climate change, after Haiti and the Philippines. It further stated that Pakistan witnessed the biggest loss to its economy, a staggering figure of over USD 6 billion, something we have still not recovered from.

Today the world takes climate change as a threat to its survival and by the end of this year more than 190 countries will meet in Paris, France to chalk out a global agreement on climate change. The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference or COP21 aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) to limit global temperature increase to 2 degrees (pre-industrial level).

This makes COP21 more important than any other universal agreement, as the fate of the planet will be decided at the meeting. The agreement will come into force after 2020 and it is important for nations not to just reach a legally binding treaty but also to implement it in spirit and soul to avoid dangerous climate catastrophes around the world.

Impacts of climate change are evident on agriculture, livelihoods, lives and infrastructure

Last year at COP20 held in Lima, Peru it was decided that countries will submit their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) for climate change adaptation and mitigation before COP21. Pakistan is yet to announce its commitment by the end of September and people all over the world are questioning how one of the most vulnerable country plans to develop its adaptation and mitigation agenda to protect itself from extreme weathering events.

The Ministry of Climate Change (MOCC) acknowledges that Pakistan is getting affected by the impacts of climate change in the form of annual floods, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), cyclones and heat waves. Therefore it is actively engaged with the provincial governments to encourage them to play their part in making their socio-economic and public infrastructures climate-resilient.

Saleem Sheikh, Deputy Director Media and Communications, MoCC said that there are several recommendations for tackling floods, GLOFs, tropical cyclones, heat waves, shifting rainfall, river flow patterns, declining groundwater levels, droughts, expanding desertification, aridity and sea-level rise. ‘Provincial governments and relevant authorities need to incorporate climate change adaptation and mitigation plans in agriculture, water, irrigation, health, and education sectors to make their socio-economic sectors strong enough to sustain climate change impacts’

Ministry of Climate Change plans on COP21

The Ministry of Climate Change is pro-actively engaged with relevant federal and provincial government departments and non-governmental stakeholders to thrash out Pakistan’s strong climate vulnerability case to present at the two-week UN-led global climate conference scheduled to begin on November 30 this year.

As a part of the G77 countries, Pakistan will press on rich countries to pay for climate risks and damages caused due to climate-altering and an escalating trajectory of carbon emissions for which rich countries are responsible. Rich countries will also be pushed on the transfer of finance, technology and technical know-how to developing countries like Pakistan.

Pakistan is grappling with floods, rising sea-level, erratic rainfall patterns, GLOFs and cyclones

Framing a National Roadmap

The MoCC, in collaboration with provincial governments and all relevant stakeholders, will chalk out a national roadmap and submit it to the UN by end of September 2015. The document will reflect clear-cut expectations and the role of Pakistan in adaptation and mitigation.

Securing Green Climate Fund at COP21

The MoCC has conveyed Pakistan’s climate vulnerability case to the global community and that Pakistan is grappling with a number of climate risks including floods, rising sea-level, erratic rainfall patterns, GLOFs and cyclones.

The ministry has already initiated efforts to avail funding for the UN-controlled Green Climate Fund (GCF) to boost climate change adaptation in the country. Furthermore, provincial governments and other stakeholders have already submitted several plans to be submitted ahead to the GCF to get funding for their implementation.

A workshop on climate change

In August, I attended a climate change workshop organized by the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung (HBS) titled Introduction to COP21. The HBS, a German political non-profit organization working on ecology and sustainable development, democracy and human rights, self-determination, peace and justice in Pakistan, organized the workshop to sensitize media on climate change and the need to highlight the importance of COP21 among the public.

The workshop had climate change experts from across Pakistan including the Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC); International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN); Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI); Centre for Climate Research and Development (CCRD), COMSATS and the French Embassy.

Director of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, Marion Regina Mueller, hoped that this agreement will help to adapt and mitigate climate change in Pakistan. ‘We want to address the discussion about climate injustice which requires social and political discussion and a fundamental change in our economic system. Since the pressure is immense, to reach a tangible agreement on climate change, it is expected that COP21 will deliver ‘what the world (rather “what the people who are affected most by climate change impacts”) want.’

According to Malik Amin Aslam, Vice President, IUCN, and Chair of the Green Growth Initiative in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province who has also been a lead member of the Pakistan’s negotiating team on climate change, “Climate science is now indisputable, the economic costs of climate impacts are directly impacting countries and the physical reality of the issue is being felt across the world in the form of increased floods, freak weather patterns and rising sea levels. Unfortunately, the only issue lagging behind all this is the political process which remains mired in endless and fruitless negotiations.”

When asked what the world wants from Pakistan, Aslam said that Pakistan is a very low contributor to the problem of climate change with minimal greenhouse gas emissions but still remains one of the most impacted and vulnerable countries. “We are definitely at the receiving end of climate injustice – facing the heat while contributing very little to the issue. It is not about what the world wants from Pakistan but what Pakistan demands from the world in order to cope with this inescapable reality for us. We are at an age of forced adaptation and have to cope with yearly floods, freak weather events, melting glaciers, bursting glacial lake outbursts and a shifting monsoon pattern – all of which is impacting our economy to the tune of USD 6 to USD 14 billion per year and creating millions of climate refugees. We need the world to get its act together and to act on assisting countries like Pakistan to face up to and cope with climate change. We demand the unfunded funds, especially the Global Climate Fund, to finally start delivering on its promise of helping countries adapt to climate change and developing climate resilient infrastructure.”

"Climate science is now indisputable"

Pakistan also needs space for its future development and to address associated energy needs, which are projected to be met with the utilization of indigenous coal that will increase our future carbon emissions. We can also follow a cleaner trajectory, provided the incremental financial needs are met and we have access to the best available cleaner coal technologies, all of which is being promised by the global climate forum but so far remains undelivered. Aslam, however, strongly opposed the idea of fuelling Pakistan’s future growth by importing dirty coal and then using it to fire up the country’s coal-based plants, all of which can cause serious local environmental issues and also worsen global climate change. He said that win-win opportunities are present for climate mitigation. In this regard, he mentioned the case of KP province which, under the Green Growth programme, is aiming for zero carbon growth based on meeting all future energy needs through hydro-power while simultaneously sequestering carbon emissions through enhanced afforestation via ongoing projects such as the Billion Tree Tsunami. He said that the province is endeavoring to prove that climate mitigation and responsible development can go hand in hand provided the right strategic focus and political commitment is present.

Global temperature from January to June 2015 was the hottest period on record

Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate change is increasing with every passing day. A tornado in Peshawar killed 44 people and injured hundreds, heat waves in Karachi killed more than 1,500 people and recent floods in Pakistan killed 233 and affected 1,572,191 people. This COP21 holds immense importance for every person in Pakistan, as it will help to highlight to the rest of the world that we will not allow nature to play with our future and together we’ll build a future where humans live in harmony with nature.

Time is running out for Pakistan as the frequency of extreme wreathing events is increasing. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has already confirmed that the globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces from January to June 2015, was the hottest period on record. We have to stop human-induced climate change at all costs as it is affecting us directly. Pakistan has to adapt and mitigate climate change immediately, as we don’t have time to wait for a climate agreement to be signed and implemented by 2020. We are highly vulnerable to it and already paying a high price in the form of unusual and extreme weathering events. Alarmingly, the only stakeholder not negotiating is nature which is also not waiting to act.

Voltaire rightly said: ‘Men argue. Nature acts’. It’s time to act before it gets too late!

The writer has an interest in climate change, water, food security and sustainable development. He tweets @SyedMAbubakar and can be reached via s.m.abubakar@hotmail.com