As India and Pakistan commemorated the 50th anniversary of the 1965 war, their forces exchanged fire on the Line of Control (LoC).
A senior Indian diplomat told me the recent escalation took place as a result of a misunderstanding, to which Indian soldiers contributed more than their Pakistani rivals. But there is no way to ascertain whether what happened early this month was just an operational error, or a deliberate attempt to force Pakistani soldiers to open fire.
The diplomat said the Indian soldiers were using a bulldozer to level grounds near the Working Boundary, but had not informed the Pakistani commander about the movement of heavy machinery in line with the agreed Standard Operating Procedures. This safety mechanism is important to avoid misunderstandings. According to the Indian diplomat’s account, Pakistani soldiers blew whistles and gave flashlight signals. But the Indians could not respond in time, prompting Pakistani soldiers to open fire. The Indian soldiers returned the fire, he says, and as a result, civilian casualties took place.
Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman Qazi Khalilullah dismissed the last part of the Indian diplomat’s story. The Indian forces resorted to unprovoked firing, he says, and there have been regular violations of ceasefire by the Indian border forces in the last few months.
The Indian diplomat was skeptical about the prospects of resumption of a composite dialogue any time soon. He admitted the cancellation of the meeting between the Indian and Pakistani national security advisers was a setback to the process. But he insisted the talks were of no concern to the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, and an agenda finalized in Ufa did not include Kashmir.
“It is equally important to recall that terrorism was always a part of the eight point composite dialogue and it was always discussed simultaneously with other issues between the Interior Secretaries. It is not reasonable for India to now assume the right to decide unilaterally that from now onwards, other issues will be discussed after terrorism has been discussed and eliminated,” said a statement issued by Pakistan’s Foreign Office last month.
A source close to the prime minister’s foreign affairs team believes it may take months for the resumption of dialogue at any level. “The situation is tense and both sides need some time before they can sit on a table together,” he added.
Sartaj Aziz made it clear recently that Pakistan would not engage with India if the issue of Kashmir was not on the agenda.
Peace lovers in India and Pakistan had pinned great hopes on a likely meeting between Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif on the margins of United Nations General Assembly meeting later this month. However, the schedules of the two South Asian leaders do not match.
The Indian External Affairs Ministry has already dismissed any formal meeting between the two prime ministers. Back-channel negotiators sometimes try to arrange ‘surprise’ encounters between leaders of unfriendly countries to boost peace efforts, but the two-day gap between the address of Mr Modi and that of Mr Sharif may not allow that to happen.
Prime Minister Sharif had made an attempt to make history yet again when he attended the oath-taking ceremony of Mr Modi despite backlash at home. But in the current state of affairs, he is not likely to make any further overtures.
Shahzad Raza is an Islamabad-based journalist
Twitter: OldPakistan_
A senior Indian diplomat told me the recent escalation took place as a result of a misunderstanding, to which Indian soldiers contributed more than their Pakistani rivals. But there is no way to ascertain whether what happened early this month was just an operational error, or a deliberate attempt to force Pakistani soldiers to open fire.
The diplomat said the Indian soldiers were using a bulldozer to level grounds near the Working Boundary, but had not informed the Pakistani commander about the movement of heavy machinery in line with the agreed Standard Operating Procedures. This safety mechanism is important to avoid misunderstandings. According to the Indian diplomat’s account, Pakistani soldiers blew whistles and gave flashlight signals. But the Indians could not respond in time, prompting Pakistani soldiers to open fire. The Indian soldiers returned the fire, he says, and as a result, civilian casualties took place.
Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman Qazi Khalilullah dismissed the last part of the Indian diplomat’s story. The Indian forces resorted to unprovoked firing, he says, and there have been regular violations of ceasefire by the Indian border forces in the last few months.
A 'surprise encounter' between the two leaders may not be possible
The Indian diplomat was skeptical about the prospects of resumption of a composite dialogue any time soon. He admitted the cancellation of the meeting between the Indian and Pakistani national security advisers was a setback to the process. But he insisted the talks were of no concern to the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, and an agenda finalized in Ufa did not include Kashmir.
“It is equally important to recall that terrorism was always a part of the eight point composite dialogue and it was always discussed simultaneously with other issues between the Interior Secretaries. It is not reasonable for India to now assume the right to decide unilaterally that from now onwards, other issues will be discussed after terrorism has been discussed and eliminated,” said a statement issued by Pakistan’s Foreign Office last month.
A source close to the prime minister’s foreign affairs team believes it may take months for the resumption of dialogue at any level. “The situation is tense and both sides need some time before they can sit on a table together,” he added.
Sartaj Aziz made it clear recently that Pakistan would not engage with India if the issue of Kashmir was not on the agenda.
Peace lovers in India and Pakistan had pinned great hopes on a likely meeting between Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif on the margins of United Nations General Assembly meeting later this month. However, the schedules of the two South Asian leaders do not match.
The Indian External Affairs Ministry has already dismissed any formal meeting between the two prime ministers. Back-channel negotiators sometimes try to arrange ‘surprise’ encounters between leaders of unfriendly countries to boost peace efforts, but the two-day gap between the address of Mr Modi and that of Mr Sharif may not allow that to happen.
Prime Minister Sharif had made an attempt to make history yet again when he attended the oath-taking ceremony of Mr Modi despite backlash at home. But in the current state of affairs, he is not likely to make any further overtures.
Shahzad Raza is an Islamabad-based journalist
Twitter: OldPakistan_