Tensions between the military and the PPP in Sindh are bound to rise, despite efforts by some PPP stalwarts to put a spin on Mr Asif Zardari’s recent outburst. The military is using the media to “leak” stories of corruption in the Sindh government that suggest long hit lists have been prepared of people who are going to be investigated, picked up, interrogated or arrested and charged for terrorism-related corrupt practices. The hurried departure of Mr Zardari’s sister, Faryal Talpur, to foreign shores is a manifestation of this effective pressure tactic because she is alleged to be the key manipulator in the Sindh government on behalf of Mr Zardari. The Sindh government, meanwhile, is trying to appease the military by offering 9000 acres of forest land for the army’s martyrs while preparing to block and even challenge the military’s writ in Sindh under the law. These tactics will not work. If anything, the military’s response is likely to be even more self-righteous and forthright against the Sindh government and its MQM ally.
Equally, the long term relationship between the military and the MQM is approaching breaking point following the military’s decision to give British police access to the alleged murderers of Dr Imran Farooq who have been in ISI custody for over three years without acknowledgement. Now the military has formally “arrested” them and the interior minister has publicly pledged to allow the British authorities to interrogate them. This means that an irrevocable decision has finally been taken to target Altaf Hussain in the UK. With the MQM in significant disarray and depletion in Karachi, this move is bound to weaken its current leadership by sowing divisions in its ranks which precipitates a struggle for leadership.
But it is not going to be smooth sailing even for the all-powerful military. In fact it is likely to be acutely frustrated by the Supreme Court if, given their current mood, the judges feel inclined to strike down military courts and courts-martial of civilians under the 21st constitutional amendment. The judges are even debating the right of parliament to change the “basic structure” of a democratic constitution. The SC has also stayed the death sentence passed on six terrorists by a military court confirmed by the COAS and is demanding a record of the trial to determine its fairness. This process is going to pit the two institutions against each other and create another layer of uncertainty in the body politic. On top of that, the military’s pledge to deliver the Taliban to the negotiating table with Afghanistan is wearing thin as the Taliban launch the fiercest and most outrageous attacks to date on the Kabul regime, provoking Afghan critics of President Ashraf Ghani to decry his shaky relationship with Pakistan and push him closer to India again. Naturally, it doesn’t help the military that India has chosen this moment to up the proxy war in Pakistan and can heat up the border at will.
In the midst of this rising tension between various political players at home and in the neighbourhood, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif seems curiously aloof and unruffled as he globe trots for investments and sources of energy. But he shouldn’t be sanguine. Ultimately, the Karachi operation will have a blowback effect in Islamabad, no less than a failure of foreign policy in India and Afghanistan and domestic policy in the Supreme Court. Mr Sharif is also going to feel the wrath of the people as the heatwave claims the lives of hundreds of people amidst pervasive and unrelenting power outages for the third year running since he came to power. If these miseries are exacerbated by torrential rains and flooding, there will be no respite. As if these are not troubles enough, the Supreme Court’s Judicial Commission inquiring into the last general elections is expected to deliver its judgment soon. While it is not likely to conclude that there was any “systematic and designed conspiracy to steal the elections” by a coterie of people at the behest of Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN, it may well judge the general elections as being marred by widespread irregularities and bad practices and recommend a complete overhaul of the system of elections under a revamped Election Commission. That will certainly wipe the gloss from Mr Sharif’s sweeping victory in 2013 and spur the opposition led by Imran Khan, including the newly estranged MQM and PPP who will be seeking both revenge and distraction, to mount a campaign for an early election.
The biggest source of instability, of course, would come from any attempt by the military to spur NAB to start inquiries about the fortunes of PMLN stalwarts or their links with sectarian terrorists in the Punjab. This stage is also unavoidable if the military wants to be seen as politically neutral and nationally object-oriented. That is when quantitative change could tip over into qualitative change with unforeseen and unintended consequences.
It’s going to be a long, hot summer.
Equally, the long term relationship between the military and the MQM is approaching breaking point following the military’s decision to give British police access to the alleged murderers of Dr Imran Farooq who have been in ISI custody for over three years without acknowledgement. Now the military has formally “arrested” them and the interior minister has publicly pledged to allow the British authorities to interrogate them. This means that an irrevocable decision has finally been taken to target Altaf Hussain in the UK. With the MQM in significant disarray and depletion in Karachi, this move is bound to weaken its current leadership by sowing divisions in its ranks which precipitates a struggle for leadership.
But it is not going to be smooth sailing even for the all-powerful military. In fact it is likely to be acutely frustrated by the Supreme Court if, given their current mood, the judges feel inclined to strike down military courts and courts-martial of civilians under the 21st constitutional amendment. The judges are even debating the right of parliament to change the “basic structure” of a democratic constitution. The SC has also stayed the death sentence passed on six terrorists by a military court confirmed by the COAS and is demanding a record of the trial to determine its fairness. This process is going to pit the two institutions against each other and create another layer of uncertainty in the body politic. On top of that, the military’s pledge to deliver the Taliban to the negotiating table with Afghanistan is wearing thin as the Taliban launch the fiercest and most outrageous attacks to date on the Kabul regime, provoking Afghan critics of President Ashraf Ghani to decry his shaky relationship with Pakistan and push him closer to India again. Naturally, it doesn’t help the military that India has chosen this moment to up the proxy war in Pakistan and can heat up the border at will.
In the midst of this rising tension between various political players at home and in the neighbourhood, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif seems curiously aloof and unruffled as he globe trots for investments and sources of energy. But he shouldn’t be sanguine. Ultimately, the Karachi operation will have a blowback effect in Islamabad, no less than a failure of foreign policy in India and Afghanistan and domestic policy in the Supreme Court. Mr Sharif is also going to feel the wrath of the people as the heatwave claims the lives of hundreds of people amidst pervasive and unrelenting power outages for the third year running since he came to power. If these miseries are exacerbated by torrential rains and flooding, there will be no respite. As if these are not troubles enough, the Supreme Court’s Judicial Commission inquiring into the last general elections is expected to deliver its judgment soon. While it is not likely to conclude that there was any “systematic and designed conspiracy to steal the elections” by a coterie of people at the behest of Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN, it may well judge the general elections as being marred by widespread irregularities and bad practices and recommend a complete overhaul of the system of elections under a revamped Election Commission. That will certainly wipe the gloss from Mr Sharif’s sweeping victory in 2013 and spur the opposition led by Imran Khan, including the newly estranged MQM and PPP who will be seeking both revenge and distraction, to mount a campaign for an early election.
The biggest source of instability, of course, would come from any attempt by the military to spur NAB to start inquiries about the fortunes of PMLN stalwarts or their links with sectarian terrorists in the Punjab. This stage is also unavoidable if the military wants to be seen as politically neutral and nationally object-oriented. That is when quantitative change could tip over into qualitative change with unforeseen and unintended consequences.
It’s going to be a long, hot summer.