With violence escalating in Afghanistan, hopes for an early peaceful settlement of the conflict are fading away fast. The opportunity created due to improvement in ties between Islamabad and Kabul, Pakistan’s renewed resolve to get the Taliban to join the peace process, and importantly the strong regional support for the process could soon be lost if the stakeholders don’t act fast to salvage the situation.
Media was this week abuzz with reports about a preliminary contact between Secretary of the High Peace Council Masoom Stanikzai, who is also now the defense minister designate, and a three member Taliban delegation led by Mullah Abdul Razaq Akhund, who represents what some call the Quetta Shura in theChinese city of Urumqi on May 20. The meeting reportedly facilitated by Pakistan and China has been denied by both Taliban and Afghan government for understandable reasons – firstly it was not a formal session, but one where the two sides deliberated on preconditions for talks and secondly neither side could afford to take chances in view of bloody fighting in which they are involved.
Pakistan and China, meanwhile, remained tightlipped about the reports and the only statement coming from the two countries was on the occasion of Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping’s meeting with Special Assistant to Prime Minister Tariq Fatemi in Islamabad, when the Foreign Office said: “Pakistan and China shared a common vision for a peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan.” Beijing has recently particularly looked keen to play a role in mediating a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan and has been doing this with the support of Islamabad, its longtime trusted ally and who is also believed to be maintaining strong links with Taliban. Other than its economic and political interests linked to Afghanistan, China’s growing interest in the peace process is driven by greater need for stability along its South-Western border because of the unrest in the far-west province of Xinjiang.
Chinese diplomats and Pakistani officials admit in their private discussions that they facilitated a meeting between the representatives of Afghan government and Taliban earlier this month. A delegation from Taliban’s political office had previously visited China in October last year, almost at the same time when President Ashraf Ghani was there on his first official trip.
The Chinese interest and Pakistan’s new found resolve to help Afghanistan notwithstanding, what really matters is the worsening situation on the ground. Afghanistan is already witnessing some of the worst violence. The Taliban offensive dubbed Operation Azm was launched from Northern province of Kunduz and the fighting has now spread to some 16 districts across the country. This year’s fighting season, the first since Afghan forces became fully responsible for the security after NATO forces ended their 13-year combat mission in December, is being described as the bloodiest. Taliban have staged some spectacular attacks since the start of their “Spring Offensive” in last week of April. But, even before the formal start of the offensive casualties among Afghan security forces in the first four months had, according to some conservative estimates, gone up by a whopping 65 percent as compared to the same period in the previous year.
This forms the backdrop of criticism of ISI-NDS intelligence cooperation deal in Kabul or the questions raised about the informal Taliban and Afghan government meeting in China. The bleak situation would also put to test President Ghani’s resolve to improve ties with Pakistan.
Afghan Analyst Haroon Mir explains: “The delay in talks and the intensifying Taliban attacks are making the situation very complicated. It is putting immense pressure on President Ghani.”
Mir warns that it is the last opportunity for all to reach a settlement. He fears that the situation would become more complicated if this chance goes begging. “It is in the interest of all of us to at least begin formal negotiations at the earliest,” he said.
The question that many ask in Kabul these days is what to make of Islamabad’s new mantra that “Afghanistan’s enemies are Pakistan’s enemies” and that Taliban violence would be considered as terrorism.
Those deeply skeptical about Pakistan have a readymade answer and as Director Afghan Study Center Prof Abdul Ghafoor Laiwal puts it, the popular narrative there is that Pakistan is “playing a double role”.
Prof Laiwal too looks convinced with this narrative: “If they (Pakistanis) really want and sincerely try they can make reconciliation happen.” If Pakistan is serious, he maintains, it should at least get those under its influence on the table for talks.
A member of the internal security and defense affairs committee of the lower house of the Parliament Wolesi Jirga, Khalid Pashtoon in a radio interview said: “If Pakistan is willing to sincerely cooperate with Afghanistan in fight against terror, then it should show it in action.”
This explanation appears to be an over-simplification of the problem. There are other factors at play in Afghanistan too.
It is the first time that Afghan security forces are on their own without on ground support of coalition forces. Therefore, the militants would try their best to test the security forces strength and possibly gain ground. In doing so the Taliban would be attempting to weaken Ghani’s government ahead of any negotiations.
Afghan interior ministry spokesman Sediq Sediqi too believes that the Taliban stepped up attacks with the belief that Afghan forces would not be able to maintain security after withdrawal of international troops from the country.
Secondly, the entry of Islamic State (also known as Daish) has complicated the situation. Taliban fear that if they relent at this stage most of their fighters would switch sides and join Daish. Their fears are to some extent also true given that Daish has recruited number of ex-Taliban.
Mr Sediqi citing intelligence reports said: “Daish was planning to increase its activities”. He pointed out that most of Daish fighters were either former Taliban, Haqqani Network or Al Qaeda militants.”
The third factor because of which violence is increasing is the increasing collaboration between the militants and the criminal networks. Though, this is not much talked about, reports in the past have pointed to this worrisome trend as well. A US Department of Defense Report of stated: “The majority of the insurgent activity in RC-W [Regional Command – West] … represents a mixture of insurgent and criminal activity.
But, more importantly, Pakistan’s influence on Taliban is waning. The Taliban are increasingly divided and the elements that still heed to Islamabad’s advice don’t hold the sway. The story about the meeting in China also points towards this. At the talks, which were said to have been brokered by ISI, Taliban were represented by Mullah Abdul Razaq Akhund, who is from Quetta Shura, whereas the person mandated by Taliban leadership for reconciliation is Tayib Agha.Analysts ask why did spoke to Akhund instead of Agha.
Pakistani authorities are not on good terms with Agha, whose brothers were arrested last year. After their release, they moved out of Pakistan with their families and are currently settled in Qatar. Similarly, the fighters on ground are not ready to accept the call from their Pakistan based leaders to end violence.
There are also elements within Afghan government, who are opposed to reconciling with Taliban. It’s the same people, who have been prematurely leaking stories about behind the scenes efforts for peace in an attempt to preempt those moves.
UN Secretary General Ban ki Moon in his latest report to the Security Council had quite appropriately noted: “Even amidst the new opportunities for dialogue, there remain hard-line elements of the insurgency which will want to test the resolve of Afghan security forces. There must be realism about the timelines for a peace process and commitment to the ultimate goal of peace, while recognizing that the path will not be fast and is unlikely to be smooth.”
Media was this week abuzz with reports about a preliminary contact between Secretary of the High Peace Council Masoom Stanikzai, who is also now the defense minister designate, and a three member Taliban delegation led by Mullah Abdul Razaq Akhund, who represents what some call the Quetta Shura in theChinese city of Urumqi on May 20. The meeting reportedly facilitated by Pakistan and China has been denied by both Taliban and Afghan government for understandable reasons – firstly it was not a formal session, but one where the two sides deliberated on preconditions for talks and secondly neither side could afford to take chances in view of bloody fighting in which they are involved.
Pakistan and China, meanwhile, remained tightlipped about the reports and the only statement coming from the two countries was on the occasion of Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping’s meeting with Special Assistant to Prime Minister Tariq Fatemi in Islamabad, when the Foreign Office said: “Pakistan and China shared a common vision for a peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan.” Beijing has recently particularly looked keen to play a role in mediating a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan and has been doing this with the support of Islamabad, its longtime trusted ally and who is also believed to be maintaining strong links with Taliban. Other than its economic and political interests linked to Afghanistan, China’s growing interest in the peace process is driven by greater need for stability along its South-Western border because of the unrest in the far-west province of Xinjiang.
Chinese diplomats and Pakistani officials admit in their private discussions that they facilitated a meeting between the representatives of Afghan government and Taliban earlier this month. A delegation from Taliban’s political office had previously visited China in October last year, almost at the same time when President Ashraf Ghani was there on his first official trip.
The Chinese interest and Pakistan’s new found resolve to help Afghanistan notwithstanding, what really matters is the worsening situation on the ground. Afghanistan is already witnessing some of the worst violence. The Taliban offensive dubbed Operation Azm was launched from Northern province of Kunduz and the fighting has now spread to some 16 districts across the country. This year’s fighting season, the first since Afghan forces became fully responsible for the security after NATO forces ended their 13-year combat mission in December, is being described as the bloodiest. Taliban have staged some spectacular attacks since the start of their “Spring Offensive” in last week of April. But, even before the formal start of the offensive casualties among Afghan security forces in the first four months had, according to some conservative estimates, gone up by a whopping 65 percent as compared to the same period in the previous year.
This forms the backdrop of criticism of ISI-NDS intelligence cooperation deal in Kabul or the questions raised about the informal Taliban and Afghan government meeting in China. The bleak situation would also put to test President Ghani’s resolve to improve ties with Pakistan.
Afghan Analyst Haroon Mir explains: “The delay in talks and the intensifying Taliban attacks are making the situation very complicated. It is putting immense pressure on President Ghani.”
Mir warns that it is the last opportunity for all to reach a settlement. He fears that the situation would become more complicated if this chance goes begging. “It is in the interest of all of us to at least begin formal negotiations at the earliest,” he said.
The question that many ask in Kabul these days is what to make of Islamabad’s new mantra that “Afghanistan’s enemies are Pakistan’s enemies” and that Taliban violence would be considered as terrorism.
Those deeply skeptical about Pakistan have a readymade answer and as Director Afghan Study Center Prof Abdul Ghafoor Laiwal puts it, the popular narrative there is that Pakistan is “playing a double role”.
Prof Laiwal too looks convinced with this narrative: “If they (Pakistanis) really want and sincerely try they can make reconciliation happen.” If Pakistan is serious, he maintains, it should at least get those under its influence on the table for talks.
A member of the internal security and defense affairs committee of the lower house of the Parliament Wolesi Jirga, Khalid Pashtoon in a radio interview said: “If Pakistan is willing to sincerely cooperate with Afghanistan in fight against terror, then it should show it in action.”
This explanation appears to be an over-simplification of the problem. There are other factors at play in Afghanistan too.
It is the first time that Afghan security forces are on their own without on ground support of coalition forces. Therefore, the militants would try their best to test the security forces strength and possibly gain ground. In doing so the Taliban would be attempting to weaken Ghani’s government ahead of any negotiations.
Afghan interior ministry spokesman Sediq Sediqi too believes that the Taliban stepped up attacks with the belief that Afghan forces would not be able to maintain security after withdrawal of international troops from the country.
Secondly, the entry of Islamic State (also known as Daish) has complicated the situation. Taliban fear that if they relent at this stage most of their fighters would switch sides and join Daish. Their fears are to some extent also true given that Daish has recruited number of ex-Taliban.
Mr Sediqi citing intelligence reports said: “Daish was planning to increase its activities”. He pointed out that most of Daish fighters were either former Taliban, Haqqani Network or Al Qaeda militants.”
The third factor because of which violence is increasing is the increasing collaboration between the militants and the criminal networks. Though, this is not much talked about, reports in the past have pointed to this worrisome trend as well. A US Department of Defense Report of stated: “The majority of the insurgent activity in RC-W [Regional Command – West] … represents a mixture of insurgent and criminal activity.
But, more importantly, Pakistan’s influence on Taliban is waning. The Taliban are increasingly divided and the elements that still heed to Islamabad’s advice don’t hold the sway. The story about the meeting in China also points towards this. At the talks, which were said to have been brokered by ISI, Taliban were represented by Mullah Abdul Razaq Akhund, who is from Quetta Shura, whereas the person mandated by Taliban leadership for reconciliation is Tayib Agha.Analysts ask why did spoke to Akhund instead of Agha.
Pakistani authorities are not on good terms with Agha, whose brothers were arrested last year. After their release, they moved out of Pakistan with their families and are currently settled in Qatar. Similarly, the fighters on ground are not ready to accept the call from their Pakistan based leaders to end violence.
There are also elements within Afghan government, who are opposed to reconciling with Taliban. It’s the same people, who have been prematurely leaking stories about behind the scenes efforts for peace in an attempt to preempt those moves.
UN Secretary General Ban ki Moon in his latest report to the Security Council had quite appropriately noted: “Even amidst the new opportunities for dialogue, there remain hard-line elements of the insurgency which will want to test the resolve of Afghan security forces. There must be realism about the timelines for a peace process and commitment to the ultimate goal of peace, while recognizing that the path will not be fast and is unlikely to be smooth.”