Just before the capital of Pakistan went into a unique experience of sit-ins and protests, IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report was launched in Islamabad. Four speakers presented global climate change scenarios, climate change impacts and proposed solutions for South Asia and Pakistan. The future actions for Pakistan emphasized policy interventions, increased water and land use efficiencies and addressing population based risk factors. The seminar was told that a single professional participated from Pakistan, four from Bangladesh, a few dozen from India and about one hundred from China, in the preparation of 5th Assessment Report (AR5).
As reported in AR5, limited data from Pakistan shows increase in temperature and sea level rise, variations in rainfall, more extreme events (not necessary linked with climate change) and apparently no melting trends of the western Himalayan glaciers. The contribution of Global Climate Change Impact Study Center from Pakistan showed that existing cropping patterns and water use practices are not sustainable. The study showed that by 2080 crop yield would increase by 50 percent in the northern areas of Pakistan whereas it would decrease by 18-32 percent in Punjab. Speakers emphasized that the Climate Change impacts faced by Pakistan are more governance and population related. Pakistan’s high vulnerability is linked with poverty and the disaster risk factors. Pakistan needs an inclusive and decentralized alternate development approach to address the climate change and mostly non-engineering solutions – requiring policy interventions, awareness of decision makers, involvement of communities, etc. A presentation by Dr Joyashree Roy (India) on Low Carbon Development Opportunities strongly emphasized the role of investors and private sector. She said, policy makers have done sufficient, new investments are required to adopt low-carbon development projects. The seminar reflects that South Asian countries are at the different levels of Climate Change understanding and planning the responses.
The efforts of CDKN and LEAD must be appreciated for bringing this important discussion home. Before analyzing Pakistan’ climate change scenarios and priority solution as represented in AR5, it is important to look into two aspects. First how IPCC works and prepare an Assessment Report, and, second, what AR5 has recommended globally to face the climate changes.
[quote]The climate change impacts faced by Pakistan are governance and population related[/quote]
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988, jointly by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), endorsed by the UN General Assembly. The IPCC carries out activities through the Governments, coordinated by its Secretariat. IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Though thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute on a voluntary basis, the IPCC principally include scientific information acknowledged by the governments. According to the IPCC, its recommendation are scientific and neutral; the work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive. The original mandate of IPCC was to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. Today, higher focus is on the integrated climate change impacts and anthropogenic processes, regional policies and priority areas.
The AR5 covers a wide spectrum of scientific issues, evidence for climate change, description of tools and models, mitigation and adaptation options and climate change costs. Three volumes report is prepared by three Working Groups. The Report is released between September 2013 and October 2014 (when a synthesis report will be released). Each volume consists of a technical summary, policy recommendations, a summary presentation and videos. Key relevant recommendations of AR5 are summarized below.
In one group, about 1500 pages of the document were prepared by 259 scientists from 39 countries including 11 from India, 23 from China and none from Pakistan. The report use 1400 references, two about Pakistan.
● Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Many observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
● The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data - show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, over the period of 1880 to 2012. The total increase between the average of the 1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C. Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010. It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0?700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010.
● Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent. Permafrost degraded in Siberia, Central Asia, and Tibetan Plateau. Shrinking mountain glaciers across most of Asia.
● The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century is larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia. Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19C.
● The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750. Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system.
● Human influence on the climate system is clear. Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the Earth’s energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming.
● The Working Group II synthesized and draws from 1500 research and policy papers in a two volume report. About 308 authors from 70 countries including one from Pakistan contributed.
● Changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems across the globe. Evidence of climate-change impacts is strongest and most comprehensive for the natural systems. In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting quantity and quality of water resources. Global glaciers continue to shrink, affecting runoff and water resources downstream. The warming in highlatitude regions is common
● Many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, etc. A large fraction of terrestrial and freshwater species faces increased extinction risk under projected climate change, especially as it interacts with other stressors, such as habitat modification, over-exploitation, pollution, and invasive species.
● For a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts. All aspects of food security are affected by climate change, including food access, utilization and price stability. Major impacts in the near-term will be on water availability and supply, food security, and agricultural incomes.
● Due to projected sea-level rise in 21st century, coastal systems and low-lying areas will experience submergence, coastal flooding and coastal erosion.
● The climate-related extremes, heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires, reveal significant vulnerability and exposure of some ecosystems and many human systems.
● Throughout the 21st century, climate change is expected to increases health problems, slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, erode food security and create new poverty traps in urban areas and emerging hotspots of hunger.
● Uncertainties about future vulnerability, exposure, and responses large, adaptation actions are complex, hence, monitoring and learning are important for effective solutions.
● Key adaptation measures include watershed management, forestation, surface reservoirs, flood control, wastewater and groundwater management, high efficiency agriculture, energy efficiency, low carbon- development, etc.
● Integrated planning should consider synergies between adaptation and mitigation.
Group III’s report was prepared by 235 authors from 58 countries. It consists of 2,100 pages and refers 10,000 research papers.
● The low emission development is a mega challenge. The current greenhouse emission of 500 gigatonnes should be kept below 1000 gigatonnes annual. It requires limiting global warming 2Co above the pre-historic level. To achieve this ambitious target, most of the mitigation should take place in developed world. It allows Asian emission to increase by 1Co by 2030.
● Technically deep cuts in greenhouse gas emission are possible, requiring substantial technological, economic institutional and behavioural changes.
● Technologies like renewable energy, water storage, rain harvesting, green towns shows positive results. Successful measures include regulatory approaches, cap and trade systems for GHGs & tax-based policies.
● Asia can benefit from sustainable development pathways like climate smart agriculture, low carbon choices, building resilience with improved governance, social protections, and integrated approaches. Delayed action in the present may reduce options for climate resilient pathways in the future
● The international cooperation is vital to avert the climate change impacts. Developed countries have committed to mobilize $100 billion. While, required finances only in South Asia could be much higher.
As reported in AR5, limited data from Pakistan shows increase in temperature and sea level rise, variations in rainfall, more extreme events (not necessary linked with climate change) and apparently no melting trends of the western Himalayan glaciers. The contribution of Global Climate Change Impact Study Center from Pakistan showed that existing cropping patterns and water use practices are not sustainable. The study showed that by 2080 crop yield would increase by 50 percent in the northern areas of Pakistan whereas it would decrease by 18-32 percent in Punjab. Speakers emphasized that the Climate Change impacts faced by Pakistan are more governance and population related. Pakistan’s high vulnerability is linked with poverty and the disaster risk factors. Pakistan needs an inclusive and decentralized alternate development approach to address the climate change and mostly non-engineering solutions – requiring policy interventions, awareness of decision makers, involvement of communities, etc. A presentation by Dr Joyashree Roy (India) on Low Carbon Development Opportunities strongly emphasized the role of investors and private sector. She said, policy makers have done sufficient, new investments are required to adopt low-carbon development projects. The seminar reflects that South Asian countries are at the different levels of Climate Change understanding and planning the responses.
The efforts of CDKN and LEAD must be appreciated for bringing this important discussion home. Before analyzing Pakistan’ climate change scenarios and priority solution as represented in AR5, it is important to look into two aspects. First how IPCC works and prepare an Assessment Report, and, second, what AR5 has recommended globally to face the climate changes.
[quote]The climate change impacts faced by Pakistan are governance and population related[/quote]
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988, jointly by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), endorsed by the UN General Assembly. The IPCC carries out activities through the Governments, coordinated by its Secretariat. IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Though thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute on a voluntary basis, the IPCC principally include scientific information acknowledged by the governments. According to the IPCC, its recommendation are scientific and neutral; the work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive. The original mandate of IPCC was to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. Today, higher focus is on the integrated climate change impacts and anthropogenic processes, regional policies and priority areas.
The AR5 covers a wide spectrum of scientific issues, evidence for climate change, description of tools and models, mitigation and adaptation options and climate change costs. Three volumes report is prepared by three Working Groups. The Report is released between September 2013 and October 2014 (when a synthesis report will be released). Each volume consists of a technical summary, policy recommendations, a summary presentation and videos. Key relevant recommendations of AR5 are summarized below.
In one group, about 1500 pages of the document were prepared by 259 scientists from 39 countries including 11 from India, 23 from China and none from Pakistan. The report use 1400 references, two about Pakistan.
● Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Many observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
● The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data - show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, over the period of 1880 to 2012. The total increase between the average of the 1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C. Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010. It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0?700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010.
● Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent. Permafrost degraded in Siberia, Central Asia, and Tibetan Plateau. Shrinking mountain glaciers across most of Asia.
● The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century is larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia. Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19C.
● The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750. Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system.
● Human influence on the climate system is clear. Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the Earth’s energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming.
● The Working Group II synthesized and draws from 1500 research and policy papers in a two volume report. About 308 authors from 70 countries including one from Pakistan contributed.
● Changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems across the globe. Evidence of climate-change impacts is strongest and most comprehensive for the natural systems. In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting quantity and quality of water resources. Global glaciers continue to shrink, affecting runoff and water resources downstream. The warming in highlatitude regions is common
● Many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, etc. A large fraction of terrestrial and freshwater species faces increased extinction risk under projected climate change, especially as it interacts with other stressors, such as habitat modification, over-exploitation, pollution, and invasive species.
● For a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts. All aspects of food security are affected by climate change, including food access, utilization and price stability. Major impacts in the near-term will be on water availability and supply, food security, and agricultural incomes.
● Due to projected sea-level rise in 21st century, coastal systems and low-lying areas will experience submergence, coastal flooding and coastal erosion.
● The climate-related extremes, heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires, reveal significant vulnerability and exposure of some ecosystems and many human systems.
● Throughout the 21st century, climate change is expected to increases health problems, slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, erode food security and create new poverty traps in urban areas and emerging hotspots of hunger.
● Uncertainties about future vulnerability, exposure, and responses large, adaptation actions are complex, hence, monitoring and learning are important for effective solutions.
● Key adaptation measures include watershed management, forestation, surface reservoirs, flood control, wastewater and groundwater management, high efficiency agriculture, energy efficiency, low carbon- development, etc.
● Integrated planning should consider synergies between adaptation and mitigation.
Group III’s report was prepared by 235 authors from 58 countries. It consists of 2,100 pages and refers 10,000 research papers.
● The low emission development is a mega challenge. The current greenhouse emission of 500 gigatonnes should be kept below 1000 gigatonnes annual. It requires limiting global warming 2Co above the pre-historic level. To achieve this ambitious target, most of the mitigation should take place in developed world. It allows Asian emission to increase by 1Co by 2030.
● Technically deep cuts in greenhouse gas emission are possible, requiring substantial technological, economic institutional and behavioural changes.
● Technologies like renewable energy, water storage, rain harvesting, green towns shows positive results. Successful measures include regulatory approaches, cap and trade systems for GHGs & tax-based policies.
● Asia can benefit from sustainable development pathways like climate smart agriculture, low carbon choices, building resilience with improved governance, social protections, and integrated approaches. Delayed action in the present may reduce options for climate resilient pathways in the future
● The international cooperation is vital to avert the climate change impacts. Developed countries have committed to mobilize $100 billion. While, required finances only in South Asia could be much higher.