It isn’t a coincidence that Imran Khan has woken up a year after the elections to contest their wholesale legitimacy and demand the ouster of the Nawaz Sharif government while Tahir ul Qadri has simultaneously leapt out of far-away Canada to demand nothing less than a “revolution” to change the political system. Nor is it pure political opportunism that has compelled Imran Khan to constantly change the goal posts of his “azadi march” from a recount of votes in four Lahore constituencies, to the resignations of the four provincial election commissioners, to a reconstitution of the Election Commission and a reframing of electoral laws, to the establishment of a Supreme Court body for investigation into charges of electoral fraud and legitimacy, ending up with nothing less than regime change as a prelude to all of the above.
Both Imran Khan and Tahir ul Qadri have demonstrated links with the military establishment, or “Miltablishment”, dating back to the Musharraf-Pasha era. This powerful military establishment is now separate from and distinct from the defunct notion of the “Establishment” which denoted the military-bureaucratic steel-frame that once ruled Pakistan before the politicians corrupted and politicized the civil bureaucracy and co-opted it on their side. This agenda has been facilitated by the Chaudhries of Gujrat and Sheikh Rashid of Lal Haveli who are self-avowed proxies of the “Miltablishment”.
The “Miltablishment’s” aggressive but indirect interventionism in the political system stems from the potential tilting of power from the military to the civilians as electoral democracy has taken root internally and the external prop of the military in the form of the United States has withdrawn from the region. It first flexed its muscle during the Kayani era when the PPP government was straightjacketed and compelled to concede on all issues of “national security” as exclusively defined by GHQ-ISI. Now it has moved decisively to cut Nawaz Sharif to size after his decision to seize control of, and redefine, “national security” policy, especially as relates to regional foreign policy and ant-terrorism strategy. Mr Sharif’s decision to try ex-army chief Musharraf for treason has raised the hackles of the Miltablishment and compelled it to strike back.
This is to say that the Miltablishment’s preferred strategy now is to remain in control of the commanding heights of “national security” by making new allies in the media and even judiciary, both of which now claim “independent” status as organs of the state, to compensate for the abdication of the civil bureaucracy and loss of power to the representatives of the electorate.
This helps to explain not just the current movement for “azadi” or “revolution” by the political allies and proxies of the Miltablishment but also the critical role of the “new media” from the corporate sector in sustaining this development (The Jang/Geo Group is getting the stick because it belongs to the old media which is hamstrung by notions of “journalistic” independence.)
More significantly, it helps to explain how the Miltablishment intends to steer the ongoing political turmoil to its advantage in the next few weeks. A Zia-ist coup is not on the table. Equally, a Kakarist shove can be ruled out because the Nawaz Sharif of 2014 is temperamentally poles apart from the Nawaz Sharif of 1993. This leaves the Kayani option on the table. If Nawaz Sharif, Iftikhar Chaudhry and the old media were key allies in the game to make Zardari politically impotent, then Imran Khan, Tahir ul Qadri and the new media are allies today in the game to cut Sharif down to size. This is to say that the dogs of war will be called off from besieging Islamabad after Sharif concedes the demand to investigate the elections of 2013 via the Supreme Court, reconstitutes the Election Commission with the approval of the chief protagonists immediately, lets Musharraf off the hook, backtracks on his regional foreign policy initiatives and commits to dissolving parliament and holding fresh elections if the SC so directs on the basis of its findings.
Needless to say, however, the best-laid plans can go awry when these are subject to unpredictable mass crowd behavior. Any deviation from the script by Imran Khan and/or Tahir ul Qadri in the heat of the moment can have unintended consequences no less than the premeditated provocation of terrorists. Certainly, after a series of miscalculations – starting with the Model Town incident and the stop-go measures to close and open the routes for the long marchers and the stubborn refusal to open negotiations with Imran Khan on his core issues some months ago – the Sharifs cannot afford to ride on their high horses any more. They have lost their foothold and standing and will be totally dependent on the goodwill and support of the Miltablishment to complete their term. Those who have pulled out the demagogues of today and also reigned them in can all too easily pull them out again, should the need arise, for a more decisive round in the future.
This week’s main political analysis of the Friday Times by Najam Sethi is very speculative and the term used ‘Miltablishment’ is also a bit an imaginary to reveal the current political game play by two confused religious and political leaders: Imran Khan and Maulana Tahir Qadiri Sahib.
The political democracy has very weak roots in Pakistan because we all know the army ran Pakistan several decades to form a strong relationship with the USA and also the army developed its its own ‘Business Interest’ to become an independent institution which did not have much respect for the politicians and political parties.
The current crisis is definetly created by the real establishment to use two leaders against the elected government. But what is the main reason for this crisis? There are several reasons but the most important reason is that Nawaz Sharif continues to sustain good working relationship with the army establishment which is also conducting an army operation against terrorists in Pakistan. The army as a very genuine strong institution in Pakistan does not have much grievances against the Nawaz Government because the army has gained good ‘Budget Money’ this year and on other internal affairs it has not much complaints either from this government. The only problem is that current ‘Foerign Office’ is much independent and Nawaz Sharif has a strong grip on it because he believes like Mr.Modi in India, both countries must reduce poverty and work together for peace. But both countries continue to purchase more weapons from abroad to increase more poverty in their respective countries.
However, whoever is supporting Imran Khan and Maulana Tahir Qadiri Sahib behind the current also knows that the elected government could not be toppled by the street power and violence.
Dr Salim,
I feel that your comments and analysis is really good. I hope it conveys the
essence of desirable relationship between two countries for the ultimate
benefit of all the citizens. I pray that democracy gets established in the true
sense.
Jairath.
the story does complete here. The military establishment is not provoking this time and you know it too. The foreign vested interest is on the back of all this stir. The four point agenda might be so
1-to give safe way to Musharaf
2-To create civil war
3=Invite Nato or un forces to control the situation
4=to stop chinese projects and influence in Pakistan
Please read the last paragraph as follows:
However, whoever is supporting Imran Khan and Maulana Tahir Qadiri Sahib behind the curtains also knows that the elected government could not be toppled by the street power and violence.
Mr. N.Sethi can not digest this fact for reasons well known that Nawaz Sharif was also brought into power through one of the most tainted & manipulated elections in the history of Pakistan. These election are continuation of the series of 1988,1993,1997 electoral exercises through establishment in which Nawaz Shariff was an active player. Even before 2013 elections , Nawaz Sharif was already tipped as next PM.based on preset agenda by external powers;
a) Cut to size Pakistan army to please India
b) Freeze Kashmir issue for long term basis & accept India as regional power
c) Hold off Pak/Irani gas pipe line & maintain bilateral relationship at a minimum level to appease external stakeholders
d) Keep madarsa legacy in Punjab as it is to avoid any backlash from Taliban.
Despite getting all the support from friendly judiciary under Iftikhar Ch. , a major media house ( Ironically Mr. N.Sethi is also an active member of this group)& Punjab based bureaucracy due his severe mental blockage, stubborn behavior, visionless leadership qualities & extremely low IQ level to understand complex issues Nawaz Sharif has completely fallen flat on his face in just 14 months of his third stint and proved that he is absolutely unfit to lead heterogeneous society like Pakistan. Majority of people has already fed up of his style of leadership & now looking for alternatives. To blame others for own failures is just a sign of a defeated mentality & who would be better person to know it than well informed Naajm Sethi.
Shame to Imran, Qadri, Sh Rashid and Chaudhris of Gujrat fo playing politics under army’s directions.
The editorial was delayed by 24 hrs. was worried that miltablishment had already done the act and Nawz was on his way to saudi. And perhaps the editor was also asked to accompany . thank heaven. It did not happen. let us breath.
1973 constitution. 1977,1988,1990,1993,1996,1999, what these years ring in your mind. these were the glorious years of Pakistan’s experiment with democracy, where the boots kicked the PMs out of shaky chairs. country on rock and roll ever since.
A sound advise for the PM. who asked you to renew the relationship with India. hell with expanding trade. Hell with visa relaxation. why annoy the generals who will lose importance, permanent job of fighting an imaginary enemy and thus will endanger their livelihood .
and who the hell are you to chain Musharaaf . is he not their Boss ex and present to safeguard their common failures and gains . whatever that had happened, Ayup is Ayup, Zia is Zia , Tikka is Tikka, Mush is Mush and they are beyond any corrective action by high courts and low parliaments.
you tube can be banned. media can be banned. film imports can be banned. And errant media persons can be shot like dogs and the judiciary will wait decades for elapsed evidence. thus goes on and on and on.
gentlemen are you not tired of derailing democracy for whatever its failure. tell us which election was not rigged so far in the land of the pure. which regime was not corrupt. which was not pulling each others leg and can imran and quadri guarantee flawless regime for just one year.
But heaven would not have crashed if Nawaz had ordered reelection for those disputed constituencies. he is alive with his slow decision making. But he had killed the democracy in pakistan for one more time. A PM should be a fast decision maker . we suffered because of lousy Manmohan who slept over spate of rainfall of corruption. people had given such a kick , his party cannot come back to do the damage again.
zardari avoided controversial issues. earned his salary in peace . five years passed. lesson to be learned. elected PM cannot and should not administer. Bhutto who functioned as PM was executed. Benazir who wanted to rule was blasted. Nawaz how many more examples you need. your family needs you more than your nation. take tuition from zardari
Your frustration against Pakistan Army is understandable as it is the sole guarantor of Pakistan’s sovereignty despite decades of ongoing loot and plunder by ruling mafias. It is the insurmountable wall to all ill wishers.
Balachandran, your non-stop rant against popular movements in Pakistan could be a badge of honour for Najam Sethi in context of freedom of expression but I frankly believe it’s none of your business what we do over here.
Go, find a life.
Do something about rampant corruption, increased violence against women or acute shortage of public toilets. Put your own house in order before worrying about the neighbours.
So the various military coups were “popular movements”???!!!!! Seriously. That’s one naive comment! The generals overthrew governments chosen by you folks to serve their interest, disguising it as “popular” and you seen to have fallen for that! Suffice to say: in a democracy it’s the people (by way of established mechanisms like elections. Judiciary etc) that decide on the fate of their government (of which your stupid generals are a part). And thus not the generals themselves (on behalf of the people)!!
Mr. Ramayabalachandran
A family rule is declared democracy in Pakistan .In which civilized democracy brother/ sons/daughter/nephews/ in-laws etc get handsome jobs without any credentials & qualification? The game is now very obvious that Pak.Army being the only disciplined and organized institution is the main the target to make it subordinate to thoroughly incompetent so called civilian rule. Your praise to N.Sethi is very well understood but please focus on rising hindu nationalism in India rather worrying about Pakistan army.
Considering the lacklustre outcome of the march once it reached Islamabad, people have started to see through the PTI propaganda and imran khan’s selfish motives. The news of IK and other vip’s withdrawing to their mansions for the night while followers slept outside with children and lack of any organised food or water arrangements has also hit people hard, and given ammo to the sharif followers to expose IK.
From my informal dialogues with people in KPK and in Isb, dozens of Pti voters are now disillusioned by IK and have not joined the protests. Apart from the hardcore following, the regular objective folk, even the youth, seem to be abandoning Ik.
If the above is true, and it turns out IK has not been able to mobilise a huge gang, and due to lapses PmLN now has ammo to attack PTI, do you think the situation is close to backfiring against the miltestablishment?
Could it be that instead of nawaz being cut down to size, he has shown is strength due to the weakness of pti, and the military instead has been cut down to size?
Excellent as one can expect from NS
The Jang/Geo Group is getting the stick because it belongs to the old media which is hamstrung by notions of “journalistic” independence.).
IS This A Joke?
Sethi Sb: Your clear analysis is rational and makes eminent sense. But as you imply that there’s many a slip between the cup and slip, all this reactionary attempts by Imran & Qadri on behalf of the “Mileastablsiment” might and would result in further weakening of the Pakistani state, its paralysis or long term coma. May be in that event, a radical surgery, i.e. division of the state into smaller , cohesive units, might be the answer or rather the result. I think even if the Army openly and formally takes over the country it would be almost impossible for it to hold the country together politically and economically and fight Talibans/Jihadis and other Islamists at the same time. This country it seems is heading for utter disaster, perhaps like Iraq or Syria or Somalia honestly speaking.
There is only one thing worse than Militablishment …and that is ‘Gullutablishment’
Quoting your own phrase, “This is to say that the dogs of war will be called off from besieging Islamabad after Sharif concedes the demand to investigate the elections of 2013 via the Supreme Court, reconstitutes the Election Commission with the approval of the chief protagonists immediately, lets Musharraf off the hook, backtracks on his regional foreign policy initiatives and commits to dissolving parliament and holding fresh elections if the SC so directs on the basis of its findings.”
So all these demands look good to me for the country. Where is the problem?
True is the work done by Nawaz and one can see how far we have moved and making Pakistan a prosper in many directions.It is not fair to blame just after a year where all were keeping silent while 5 years of Zardari and he completed his tenure. What is the problem, I think establishment has never and will not afford a person who is becoming poplular due to its work…Turkey is with him…China is with him…Saudia is with him….Muslims near Pakistan like him….So the problem is that if such democracy will proceed easily then how such establishment can get its share….from where they will feed on…The power hands will be changed….so how they can afford it….If a popular political leader is hanged and Mush is not come for trial then it is wrong and the nation will never forget and forgive….Tule of Nature does not change….you do what you can…But establishment is not above than Nature….
It is extremely unfortunate that military continues its intervention. But it is also unfortunate that Nawaz has not learned from past experience. Since almost every one can be bought in this country (media, judiciary and other components of the civil society) one can’t be as audacious as Nawaz Sharif was a few months back. Geo also had a taste of military medicine and has now become quite humble after defaming Musharraf way beyond it should have done. Mr Shahbaz Sharif is also likely to resign. All in all, another blow has been dealt by the military to democratic powers thanks to Mr Imran, the guy from Canada, and Mr Nawaz Sharif himself
when we were boys, there is to be fight between . One boy will hold the shirt and say my father is great. the other boy will rub the nose and say no no my father is great. that is street boys immature irrational idiotic clashes of younger days
it is time Mr REZA should have grown out of it.
Yes my country is full of rapes, full of corruption . we are extremely ashamed. frustrated with stupid laws which are ineffective. one idiot senior politician who is the father of a current CM of a state justified rapes by saying ” boys will be boys, how can we punish them with hanging ‘ we are ashamed. Both our societies are male oriented. women are treated not merely badly but very very badly. i have seen all episodes of KITNE GIRHAIN AUR BAAKI HAI. excellent admission of what is happening there as well as here. We had inherited common culture. we cannot be different. what is applicable to you is also applicable to us. if something is wrong, same things are wrong here also. BUt Here we are fighting democratically. The process is slow. we need a very strong good administrator. we had tried several in the last 67 years. it is ups and down.
In USA i had seen stage performers wearing T shirts written with BUSH YOU ARE A BASTARD. audience were not upset. Nor the Govt. that is maturity. It is my right to write my opinion formed from what i read from PAK news papers and articles written by sethi, Ayaz amir and many many others. Books of Haqqani are bible for me. I have read all generals books . i have about 76 books on pakistan in my personal library. In addition i print out all important articles and bind them for reference. My staff are fed up .
decency demand that personal comments are avoided. in return
i am not going to hold any one’s shirt .
Your vision was right Najam. I know you from the days when you were with us at Hyderabad Jail (NAP Jt. Secretary) but no more with ANP.
But do you think will the genie let loose can be capped vack?
I feel the genie wants some blood before it can get back to bottle. It may be the blood of NS.
But when are we going to give our nukes to Talibans?
i believe this is the first step to this direction.
The whole world has changed into a Miltablishment.
yearly global military expenses are 1761 billion dollars( add R&D discretionary budgets ) it comes to around two trillion , for preparedness of war yearly.
Specifically in Pakistan genuine question are
1-Is the current political leadership has any sense , opposition included.
Does Mr Khan truly thinks that the mass scale embezzlement in election was without ISI knowledge .
Does Shahbaz sharif even thought to save democracy and PML by resigning as chief minister after Model town incidence.
Did Mr Qadri has any plans how to bring democratic and constitutional changes without derailing democracy.
Khalid Abdullah
Washington DC
.
Are you adding all expenses of R&D in nanotechnology too? When ISIS & Al-qaeeda, Talibans, Wahdatul Musleemen, LET & hundreds of such terrorist campaigns will be created, do you think war equipment can be put on shelves?
Answering your questions
1.The political leadership does have a direction; Energy, infrastructure, Law & order, privatization & to facilitate Chinese economy by developing corridor for China. One may disagree & I do; but the direction is clear.
2. Khan is dancing to the tune of ISI; but now the genie has been let loose & even Military Establishment can’t bottle it back.
3.NS & his team are REACTIVE & are unable to pose any initiative on their own. They hardly know if Shahbaz Sharif resigned, it would be matter of few days or weeks that NS too will have to resign.
4.Qadri is a nasty Cobra dancing to the tune of ISI. He has no agenda; neither he ever had it.
5. Stalemate is due to the fact that Military Establishment has weakened to an extent that it is difficult for it to take over or even dictate its policy for India, Afghanistan, US or even for China. Neither can it take over the INTERNAL SECURITY. They failed to bottle the genies they let loose themselves.
Questions arise
1-Did PAT betrayed the 14 innocent dead and their families for political gain?
By bringing rhetoric of Inqalab.
2-Is PTI serious to bring system change to technocrats, and may be a presidential system.
Why the allegations of embezzlement resolvable by Pakistan supreme court has been
mixed with demand of dismissal of the parliament and the PM.
The Inqalab and system change has to come by a democratic process, Simply demanding a referendum by the nation in next election can do a lot more then chaos in streets for these legitimate demands.
Sadly both parties has shot themselves in their feet and has undermined not only
their own cause but also the democratic and accountability institutions which nation has strifed for since 1947.
Khalid Abdullah
The fact is that the milestb has trumped all the three political actors: PML-N, PTI and PAT, by using the latter two as a Trojan horse to effect a power-shift towards GHQ..
Dear Najam Sethi,
You are being missed for your weekly analysis at Appas ki Baat. This has caused much grief, now that we have to read all about it rather than sit in front of the TV. Is there a back story to all this (Your absence)? After all everything in the Islamic republic of Pakistan is pre-ordained, so I wonder….
I must say your analysis on the long march was off target. However we or at least I forgive you for this inexcusable mistake.
Although I must say watching you since the downfall of the PPP, it APPEARS that you have a soft corner for the Sheriffs. This is my perception and I thought as a loyal viewer and a well-wisher I should add some value and provide feedback, I am sure the input is appreciated.
Even though you are not available on TV the dark comedy in Pakistan is providing some comic relief, however generally it makes me sad and frustrated. I thought raising my kids with the goal that they become better human beings than myself should suffice for my responsibility and contribution to Pakistan, but I don’t expect that it will make a dent. I can understand that my 8 year cannot be expected to control his emotions and not act impulsively but for an entire nation to suffer from such an affection is beyond me.
Hopefully we will see you soon on TV. I have only three question for you, What was PMLN thinking (in terms of how they dealt with Qadri and Imran)??????? Is Imran Khan a political gambler and is such a person fit to lead a country??????? What does Qadri Want ???????
I hope you answer if you read the post…….
Regards
YA
WHY Establishment and Pakistan interests are always different? WHY we refuse to learn lessons?