Fresh air

Much before he took over as the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi hit the diplomatic ground with a master stroke. He invited all the heads of South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries to witness his swearing ceremony, not only to make it a grand event after a stunning victory but also to open up a new chapter in the Indian foreign policy. Modi’s election plank was centered around good governance and development and during his campaign he didn’t give a whiff about what he thought about dealing with the neighbours. Occasional “rhetoric” vis-a-vis Pakistan in which he would often say that “talks and terror cannot go together” was the only reference that came in TV interviews.

But the way he reached out to all SAARC countries and particularly the bitter neighbour Pakistan, it surprised not only his critics but also his own party men who would have “hoped” to see a more belligerent Modi. Not only have been the relations on edge with Pakistan, but New Delhi has not been doing well with Bangladesh and even with Sri Lanka. For inviting Sri Lankan president Rajapakse, AIDMK, the powerful ruling party in Southern state of Tamil Nadu, boycotted Modi’s oath ceremony. So did the main opposition in the state, the DMK. Interestingly there was no opposition to Modi’s gesture to invite Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, albeit with a mild reaction from Congress. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s absence was significant though she was represented by the speaker since she had plans to travel to Japan.

Though Prime Minister Modi held brief and customary bilateral meetings with all the heads of SAARC countries, the focus, however, was on his meeting with Prime Minister Sharif. Nothing much could have been expected from the meeting but for both the PMs, who come from completely diverse backgrounds and understanding, at least knowing each other is a positive beginning. In the last 10 years, the former Indian prime minister could not take up a single visit to Pakistan and for six years there has been a deadlock in bilateral dialogue, though with intermittent meetings here and there. New Delhi and Islamabad had reached close to some significant agreements such as liberal visa regime and stronger trade and economic ties, and the Pakistani cabinet has given a nod to giving a Most Favoured Nation status to India but awaits a formal announcement. These measures have not been formalized as it was none other than BJP that wanted Congress to “teach Pakistan a lesson”.

Now that Modi has apparently departed from that approach and reached out to Pakistan as well (in the camouflage of the broader SAARC idea), the process could be taken forward. For 10 years, Dr Manmohan Singh gave an impression that he was keen to move forward with a positive approach towards Pakistan but he lacked political will and even the legitimacy. Being from the minority community, he did not wield that kind of power, and his tenure was dominated by blackmail by coalition partners and hardline posturing by BJP. He could not come out from the hangover of Mumbai attacks in 2008 and was pestered to make Pakistan bend on its knees to punish the perpetrators of that crime. The whole process was made hostage to the results of investigation of the Mumbai attacks. Ironically, Modi could get out of the shadow of the Muslim massacre in Gujarat and earn goodwill of a majority of Indians who sent him to the highest office.

[quote]While Modi played a master stroke, Nawaz too did not fail in dismantling his critics[/quote]

A bold step:

While Modi played a master stroke, Nawaz too did not fail in dismantling his critics, particularly a section of jingoistic media in India, that he was not in control of Pakistan. Despite the fact that Pakistan Army has a major say in foreign affairs of country, Nawaz decided to attend the oath ceremony. He did take the Pakistani military on board in accepting the invitation. At the end of the day, he wrote yet another chapter in the bilateral relations between India and Pakistan. Nawaz recognized the “peace overtures” of Modi and moved forward to keep with his repeated assertions that he wanted peace with India. He did this in the backdrop of intense opposition from extremist groups within Pakistan, who wanted to dictate him on relations with India. Notwithstanding the fact that Kashmir remains the core issue between the two countries, but to address that, an atmosphere of amity has to be created and that can only be possible when both countries start talking.

For Nawaz Sharif it was a risky decision, as back home many sections will ask him “What did you get in return?”, as was the case with former president General Pervez Musharraf when he returned from Agra. But this time, the focus has to be on building a mechanism to take the dialogue on improving mutual relations forward. And for that, Nawaz did go half way. It remains to be seen whether Modi will reciprocate, and not abandon the process just after an incident on the Line of Control, or if Mumbai will continue to dominate the discourse with Pakistan.

[quote]Modi is still seen as complacent in the massacre of Muslims in Gujarat[/quote]

Modi’s legitimacy:

To set the tone of his foreign policy with a regional agenda was not something that Narendra Modi did purely out of love for the neighbours. It also has a lot to do with his image in the rest of the world. Even as he came with a huge mandate to rule India, Modi is still seen (at least by a section in the Western press) as someone who was complacent in the massacre of Muslims in Gujarat. His main challenge is to redo his image at the international level. His acceptance as a ruler who would be inclusive is something he will work on to address the concerns of the international community. That is why he began by surprising his critics who were not expecting him to begin the foreign policy engagement like this, and had concerns that Modi may start by sending a tough message to Pakistan. He does not want to isolate himself and India, and perhaps understands that he needs to shun hardline ideology and emulate Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Though it is difficult to judge him by just this first step, it is nevertheless a new beginning in the relations between the two countries, which has been possible because of an equal sense of maturity. The road is long ahead with many bumps, but in case both the democratically elected leaders are serious and sincere, India and Pakistan have a space to go together in resolving contentious issues such as Kashmir. BJP has an advantage of not being questioned as far as the nationalistic ideology is concerned, but Sharif has more challenges back home. His homework to take the army on board was the right step. But Modi also has to shun the baggage of being a hardliner for the greater good of the region.

The takeaway:

Despite both governments preferring to keep it low profile, the bilateral meeting has not failed. India was cautious in summing up the outcome, but PM Sharif himself was positive, saying that it could turn into a historic opportunity and both the leaders could overcome the legacy of mistrust and misgivings by working for peace and stability.

However, the Indian foreign secretary did talk about raising the issue of terrorism, which means that contours of the dialogue remain the same. Nevertheless the agreement that the foreign secretaries would meet to further the process of cementing the trust could be seen as the takeaway from this meeting.

The author is a journalist based in Srinagar