The Iranian parliament approved a bill focusing on security cooperation between Islamabad and Tehran last month. That was preceded by Jaishul Adl abducting five Iranian border guards near the Pak-Iran border in Balochistan and the visits of Saudi Crown Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud and King of Bahrain Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa, with the royalties combining to give Pakistan a $2.5 billion gift believed to be for services in Syria and Bahrain.
With Islamabad seemingly opting for the Sunni half on the Middle Eastern sectarian chessboard, and cross-border militancy on the up, Tehran’s apprehensions were understandable. That and dillydallying on the Iran-Pakistan pipeline, amidst a gas shortfall of 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), as the deadline (December 31, 2014) to complete our portion of the gasline looms, meant that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s trip to Iran this week had become a diplomatic necessity.
Mistakes of the past
The last time Nawaz Sharif visited Iran was for the OIC summit in December 1997. Security and regional cooperation was at the heart of the discussions with President Mohammad Khatami. Javid Husain, Pakistan’s ambassador to Iran at the time, narrates the events: “I still remember that most of the conversation between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and former President Khatami at that time related to the possibilities of coordination of the Afghanistan policies of the two countries. Unfortunately, the desire of the two leaders to achieve the required coordination was not fulfilled because of their inability to control the policies of their security agencies. Both Pakistan and Iran, therefore, continued their support to the Taliban and the Northern Alliance respectively till 9/11 when Pakistan was forced to bring about a U-turn under the threat of the American ultimatum.”
Policymaking failures on the part of both Islamabad and Tehran not only helped strengthen the militants’ stranglehold in Afghanistan in the late 1990s, it also aggravated the security situation in both Iran and Pakistan. And now with both countries engulfed with security concerns and cross-border militancy that owes itself to decisions made in the 90s, both Tehran and Islamabad would be hoping to avoid similar mistakes.
Bilateralism is the way to go
Ever since the Saudi and Bahraini royalty visited Pakistan reportedly seeking favours in the Middle East, the ramifications on the Tehran-Iran relationship have come into the spotlight. Pakistan already has strained relationships with India on the east and Afghanistan on the west, with China becoming increasingly wary of the Uighur militants’ link to Pakistan as well it is imperative for Pakistan to have friendly ties with Iran.
Pakistan Today’s Shahab Jafry, highlighting the importance of Nawaz’s trip to Iran says, “The visit was important, because recent closeness to Saudi royals, especially a seemingly pro Saudi posture of recognising and aiding Syrian rebels, had sent very wrong signals. Damage control spin, like Pakistan was actually looking to bridge Saudi-Iranian gap, found few takers in the real world – their proxy wars since the Arab Spring have killed close to a million people, and Islamabad is in no position to engineer a paradigm shift.”
Many analysts believe that pursuing the principle of “bilateralism” is the way to go, when the interests of your partners clash, as is the case with Saudi Arabia and Iran.
[quote]The seemingly pro-Saudi posture of recognizing and aiding Syrian rebels had sent very wrong signals[/quote]
Former Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri while talking about Pakistan’s need to have friendly ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran said that the diplomatic policy of “bilateralism” is the need of the hour. “Pakistan should continue following the non-interference policy in Syria, like it has done historically. The answer to maintaining friendly ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran lies in following the foreign policy fundamental of bilateralism. Both Tehran and Riyadh are strategic partners for Islamabad, and Pakistan should not pick one over the other, and any enhancement in ties with one should not come at the expense of the other,” he said.
Further, talking about the recent cross-border terrorism Kasuri dubbed Iran’s slightly extroverted reaction last month rather “unfortunate”. “Tehran needs to fathom the gravity of the security situation in Pakistan. While there is a need to enhance transparency to deal with cross-border terrorism, for Iran and Pakistan, there is a need to talk to each other now, instead of talking at each other. There is a need to learn from history,” Kasuri said.
Husain echoed Kasuri’s words reiterating the need to avoid the mistakes of the past: “Hopefully, Nawaz Sharif’s discussions in Tehran would enable the two sides to understand each other’s point of view so that they avoid the mistakes of the past and pursue complementary rather than confrontational policies.”
An Iranian security guard stands near the construction of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline in Chabahar
Pipeline diplomacy
The Iran-Pakistan pipeline was obviously high on the agenda during the prime minister’s trip considering Tehran’s need to find buyers for its gas and Islamabad’s need to bridge a gaping energy hole. Considering the lack of activity on the pipeline front, with the deadline – and the ensuing penalties – looming, dubbing the pipeline a pipedream was the general consensus.
Jafry believes the pipeline can be salvaged.
“The pipeline, seemingly, can be salvaged. But all economic and ‘mutually beneficial’ deals will fail to materialise till Pakistan and Iran settle their Afghanistan differences. Nawaz Sharif will remember from his last visit to Iran in the late ‘90s that all deals fell through because Islamabad and Tehran could not overcome Taliban vs Northern Alliance differences.”
Husain also stressed the pipeline’s importance. “Gas from Iran is the best possible way of meeting our requirements keeping in view security considerations and the fact that between Iran and Pakistan there is no third country unlike TAPI gas pipeline which would have to go through Afghanistan.”
The Iran-Pakistan pipeline can knock down two birds with one stone. Laying the foundation of a financial symbiosis where Pakistan gets gas, while exporting rice, cement and wheat; and laying the foundation of a diplomatic bridge that would continue to be pivotal for both regardless of any external pressure.
[quote]The Iran-Pakistan pipeline can knock down two birds with one stone[/quote]
Governments at work
Nawaz Sharif met Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Monday who highlighted the interference of certain countries as the reason why Iran-Pakistan ties have suffered recently. “America, whose wickedness is known to all, is among the governments trying to make distance between Iran and Pakistan. Besides America, there are other governments at work too,” he said.
The principal antagonists here obviously are the US and Saudi Arabia. The pipeline has hit the snags due to US sanctions, and as soon as the nuclear deal with Iran in November eased those clouds, the $1.5 billion Saudi gift in February shrouded the project. Iran-Pakistan ties were in doubt all over again.
Pursuing the policy of bilateralism would ensure that both Tehran and Islamabad do not allow a third country to influence the ties between the two countries, which in turn would help Pakistan become a stronger regional player as well.
Jafry believes, “It is essential to keep close to the Iranians, not just from the ‘border’ and ‘blowback’ point of view. Iran is an essential part of the Russia-China-Iran axis that is emerging as a potent power broker. Such an alliance suits Pakistan, and can also bring us closer to both Afghanistan and India.”
It would not be out of place to suggest that the future of Pakistan’s relationship with Iran, and in turn its influence in the region, would move in synchrony with the future of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline.
