Pakistan has been an energy-starved country right from the beginning, but the most recent crisis began in 2004. As consumption grew, the government was unable to meet the increasing demand for electricity, and citizens of Rawalpindi and Islamabad faced gas outages for the first time. Military ruler Gen Pervez Musharraf and the civilian government, led by Pakistan People’s Party, that followed him failed to address the problem. The crisis worsened to the extent that Pakistani investors and industrialists were forced to move their factories to Bangladesh, Mauritius and Sri Lanka.
The People’s Party government faced popular criticism because of allegations of corruption against its water and power minister, and later its prime minister, Raja Pervez Ashraf. He is facing charges of corruption of $400 million in a case pending in the Supreme Court. Some political analysts say the party’s humiliating defeat in the May 2013 election was due to its failure to address the energy crisis.
[quote]Tehran has already spent $2 billion to build a pipeline on its side, and may demand compensation from Islamabad if it fails to do its part [/quote]
Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz took the PPP to task during its election campaign, and its leader Shahbaz Sharif promised to end electricity loadshedding in two years. After the party formed the government in the center, Nawaz Sharif said that promise was unrealistic. He vowed to address the problem in three years, and his water and power minister, Khwaja Asif, said the very next week that he could not give a deadline and it would take several years.
The first step they took was to end circular debts of Rs 480 billion, to ensure the supply of fuel was stable, and power producers were working at their full capacity. The move provided temporary relief, with the addition of 1,700 megawatts of power in the national grid.
The PML-N also announced a new energy policy, which aimed to resolve the crisis with low cost energy, tariff restructuring, efficient technology, and transparency. It said it will produce cheap electricity with coal and hydropower plants, and work on extracting coal and building dams will begin simultaneously. Until then, it said it would import coal.
According to the plan, run-of-the-river hydropower projects will be initiated to overcome short term demands until large projects like Bunji Dam and Bhasha Dam are completed.
But the policy also includes phasing out subsidies in the power sector, which means costlier electricity for consumers. There has already been an increase of Rs 3 to Rs 7 per unit for various categories of consumers.
An Iranian security guard stands near the under-construction gas pipeline in Chabahar area of southeastern Iran
The government thinks it can cover the shortage of electricity by 2017 by following its new program, and produce surplus electricity by 2018. But the Planning Commission disagrees. Even if all the projects are completed within the envisaged deadlines, officials say, loadshedding in Pakistan will continue until 2019 or 2020.
As a nation, Pakistan has failed to pursue the much-needed reforms in the power sector, and wrong policies and wrong persons have hurt the cause.
In 2014, power shortage will hover around 4,790 megawatts, officials say.
[quote]"The 20 million people of Karachi are being used as subjects in a giant nuclear safety experiment"[/quote]
A key question about Pakistan’s energy future is whether the new government will continue to work on the controversial Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project that the outgoing PPP government had initiated. When Pakistan did nothing to show its commitment, Iran cancelled a $500 million loan to Pakistan to build a pipeline on its side of the border. Tehran has already spent $2 billion to build infrastructure on its own side, and may demand compensation from Islamabad if it fails to lay down the pipeline by the end of this year. The pipeline is not on the new government’s priority list so far. There are doubts Pakistan can raise the $2 billion it needs to build its side of the the pipeline, especially when the project is being opposed by the United States.
The PML-N does seem serious in pursuing another controversial project, however – a 2,200 megawatt nuclear power plant on Karachi’s shores by 2019, with the help of China. “What people may not know is that the reactors will be based on a design known as the ACP-1000 that is still under development by a Chinese nuclear power company. Since the new Karachi reactors will be the first of their kind, no one knows how safe they will be or how well they will work,” according to nuclear physicist Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy. “The 20 million people of Karachi are being used as subjects in a giant nuclear safety experiment.”
The writer is our correspondent in Islamabad. Archived work: www.pol-dev.com Email: yamankalyan@gmail.com
Mohammad Shehzad is based in Islamabad. He has been writing for national and foreign publications since 1992. He is the author of The State of Islamic Radicalism in Pakistan (Routledge Taylor & Francis) and Love and Fear: Poems Beyond Time (www.amazon.com/dp/B08ZNK6SHB) He learns tabla and classical vocal music. He is a passionate cook and shares his recipes at Youtube.com/@mohammadshehzad. Email: Yamankalyan@gmail.com
