In Pakistan, as experts have pointed out, the tail has always wagged the dog. This is to say that the political economy of national power (economy, national cohesion, constitutional rule, etc) is hostage to a given notion of military security (India is the permanent enemy) that fashions its foreign policy. In most states, it’s the other way round: military security is just one dimension of national power and foreign policy is just one element of sustaining national power.
This doctrine of national security based on India as the permanent threat and enemy has had crippling consequences for national power: it has relegated constitutional rule to military over-lordship; it has created armed non-state actors that have eroded national cohesion; and it has bled the economy at the altar of the defense budget. Worse, it has made Pakistan dependent on the United States for sustaining both the military and the economy. The chickens have now come home to roost – the US no longer requires Pakistan as a long-term asset that has to be nurtured with injections of money and weapons; the non-state actors are slowly but surely destroying the writ of the state; the economy is in shreds; and the country is isolated and alienated in the region and abroad.
Prime minister Nawaz Sharif understands this instinctively – he wants peace with India; he wants constitutional civilian control over the military, he wants a robust self-reliant economy. The problem is that he still hasn’t figured how to go about bringing paradigm change.
The first step is to convince the military leadership that its old national security paradigm is unsustainable and must be changed appropriately. Fortunately, it is dawning on the generals that the existential threat comes from internal Muslim non-state actors rather than external Hindu India. But the problem is that they are still unable or unwilling to fashion a comprehensive new doctrine to replace the old one. This is partly because of a developed aversion to civilian supremacy and partly because the military’s very raison d’etre is India-centered in terms of its education, training, doctrines, logistics, perks and privileges and will brook no sudden ruptures from conventional wisdom and practice. Now Mr Sharif will have to use the “Kayani doctrine” of the internal Vs external enemy as a platform from which to nudge the new army chief, General Raheel, to put it into practice. How to do that is the million-dollar question.
One way for Mr Sharif is to continue with the old “composite dialogue” approach with India and hope to be a “net gainer” from dispute settlements on Kashmir, Siachin, Sir Creek, Water, etc. But this has failed to click with India since Kargil and then Mumbai destroyed all remnants of trust and Pakistan has not done anything to bring the criminal perpetrators to justice. Indeed, India’s regional doctrine has progressively posited Pakistan as an “untrustworthy state” with whom no unconditional “business” is possible. Therefore Mr Sharif’s attempt to raise the issue of “self-determination of Kashmir” at the UN in September and Sartaj Aziz’s recent exhortation to India to let go of Siachin are misguided steps in the wrong direction for paradigm change.
Much the same may be said of Mr Sharif’s efforts to smoke the peace pipe with the “existential” TTP internal enemy. This is the time to launch a military operation to degrade the TTP because its leadership is in disarray and talk to it after a measure of success has been achieved.
Mr Sharif’s approach to US-Pak relations also betrays the policy-weakness as on the two issues above. He wants Washington to do more for Pakistan but offers no concrete input into America’s national security requirements. Indeed, by demanding an end to drone strikes, he actually seems to be asking America to dispense with an effective weapon that successfully aims to degrade the Taliban, while helping them to regroup and reassert their power against Pakistan!
Despite his best intentions, Mr Sharif remains a prisoner of the national security establishment and conservative foreign policy advisors. Instead of asking India and America to “do more” unilaterally for Pakistan, a more fruitful approach may be to first join hands with them to stabilize and unite Afghanistan which figures prominently in everyone’s national security paradigm. Mr Karzai’s visit to India next week can show the way forward in the region.
India doesn’t want an American base in Afghanistan aimed at encircling and dominating the Asia-Pacific; Pakistan doesn’t want the US eying its nuclear weapons program; Afghanistan doesn’t want to compromise its national dignity any more by continuing to bed with a foreign occupation power. They all want an end to America’s current dominant role no less than the Taliban’s potentially dominant role in Afghanistan. Therefore they should all seek ways and means of achieving this two-pronged objective via a trilateral mechanism. This is the best way to build common trust to pave the way for bilateral dispute resolution in the future.
“. India doesn’t want an American base in Afghanistan aimed at encircling and dominating the Asia-Pacific – ” this is a strange one sentence argument. Why?
GraNted that Nawaz Sharif cannot control ‘the establishment’ but can he not control his own canine members? His own brothers? Heck can he not control what comes out of his own mouth?
Sartaj Aziz’s concern for the environment (the reason why India sould vacate Siachen) fools no one in a country which has the fastest deforestation rate in Asia and which allows Arab rulers to hunt endangered species for sport.
Khwaja Asif accused India of stealing water instead of acknowledging that India has always honored IET even during war times. Of course the accusations are not new. But as Khaled Ahmed has clarified in tis article http://tribune.com.pk/story/473751/target-jamaat-ali-shah/ , they were false before and they are false now.
Shahbaz Sharif funds an organizatio openly through budget whose leader this past Eid called for jihad against kafir India not in some remote corner of FATA but in Lahore itself.
Sometime Sharif makes uncharitable personal remarks about Manmohan Singh likening him to a village woman and at other times when addressing Kashmiris in Muzaffarnagar, says that if not resolved, Kashmire can trigger a 4th war.
Who can take Nawaz Sharif’s intent seriously? I think the only reason he says the necessary ‘peace’ words from time to time is to allay fears of foreign investors who he thinks may be wary of investing in Pakistan if there is likely to be a war wit India.
Well written. I agree with most of what you say. But this: “Fortunately, it is dawning on the generals that the existential threat comes from internal Muslim non-state actors rather than external Hindu India.” is a hard nut to crack. Just because one General has not interfered to destabilize rule of law does not mean much. WE should wait a few more generals and fair elections to come to that conclusion. I am also surprised that you use the words: Hindu India. India has more Muslims than Pakistan and it has a secular constitution which is not the case with pakistan. What do you think hindus in Pakistan will say about this statement?
Mr Najam Sethi is suggesting the most ideal and workable options to get out of the current quagmire. But problem lies in the chronic obsessions being cherished by the real wielders of our foreign policy, that is the defense establishment, on the one hand and lack of problem comprehension by the civilian leadership. To act on what is suggested, the defense establishment has to get out of the strategic assets syndrome and the civil leadership has to exercise better discretion while dealing with the sensitive subject of foreign policy. Arbitrary statements like the prime minister chose to give in the united nation about Kashmir problem must be resisted. He should have realized that we are dealing with India bilaterally on Kashmir since long and the sudden mention of UN resolution was absolutely out of place and in fact amounted to antagonizing the Indian leadership for nothing. Similarly the adviser on foreign affairs Mr Sirtaj Aziz comes out with a funny statement that Indian army’s presence in Siachin is causing environmental hazard. As if Pakistan army’s presence over there is good for the environment.
Mr Sethi is trying to put words in the mouths of the civil and military leadership in good faith but with no effect. These are serious problems and could be solved only by a leadership possessing a firm grip over these problems. We have to wait.
Lessons never learned by Army top Brass . I have read pakistan’s military misadventures several times. Half of my personal library is on pakistan. I am now going through all old articles written by pakistanies on various military debacles. for second or third times.. I am sure even a fresh trainee officer at kakul military academy will not be reading on their warfare misadventures as i am reading . Many have written point blank with fairness and clarity. I must compliment writers like Brig Quadir, Gen KM Arif,, Maj gen Hakeem Arshad qureshi,, Pakistan’s drift into extremism By Mr hassan Abbas. leave alone writers like Ayaz Amirs and Mr Sethi etc
Let us take 1947 operation. It was badly planned, miserably failed and the kashmiris did not erect welcome arches.. later when Ayub’s two sons played with machine guns and killed 30 odd people and eloped with some ones daughter Ayub’s head was hanging in shame. His morale was down. He had a snake with him. Mr Bhutto. He made him believe that a limited intrusion into kashmir will make Ayup a national hero again. like a snake charmer playing his flute, Bhutto was drilling into the ears of Ayub strategies not supported by Gen Musa, the army chief and by . Gen Aktar MaliK who was 12 div commander . Bhutto started by passing these Genearals and directly visiting armed forces seniors and was mesmerizing them with war plans. Musa did not like it. but like obedient junior officer stood like a stone in front of Ayup and thus let down the country. He was loyal to the boss , but not to his profession.
one has to read Brig (retd ) shaukat quadir’s article on failures for operation Gibraltar and operation Grand slam. Midway Ayup was stupid enough to dethrone Aktar malik, and installed Yahya Kahn. Akunr could not be taken. Between the cup and the lip.. It slipped.
The top heavy Generals assumed that india will be suckuing its thumps. but India attacked Lahore and rawalpindi. Ayub panicked. rushed to china and USA.. c. A ceasefire had to be hurridely arranged to safe the humilation. gandhian sastriji stopped further advances into lahore . Total bankruptcy of military planning . understand , when the attack started by indian army Ayub was relaxing at Muree. what a military brave heart he was.. who gave the rank of Field marshal when he played politics between yahya khan and Gen Aktar Malick who did a commendable job., by undertaking the task with minimum resources and training. Was he dropped because he was an Acamadi .
Again they bungled in 1971. 90,000 were taken to india as state guest.
yahya khan deposed his boss who had immense faith in him. In association with the butcher Tikka he thought he can subdue, silence the bursting Bengalis , but lost half of Jinna’s dream land.
No analysis of failures were ever made. Hamdoor Rehaman’s report was ignored. military bosses and losses were protected. No court martial of failed Genrals were done. The country was fed with false stories. war diaries were destroyed. what a shameful command structure. is this what they learned from British Army.
No lessons learned. kargil was repeated. Every General who takes over autocratically , thinks , that he can take back Kashmir by bullets. They have been losing territory, international support, endangering economy by fooling the people with false propaganda and empty promises. . Even china had advised Pakistan to withdraw from the Hills during 1965 war. they were not ready to extend active support.
Is this is the thinking capabilities of top brass. failure after failures and no one get exposed and punished. An ordinary thief is arrested , accused and punished. But not these Generals who brought the country to economic disaster. international isolation.
Nor they are able to control internal taliban challenges., their own kith and kin. At will , they are blasting anywhere and every where. you cannot even conduct immunization without their approval. Girls cannot go to school. any christian can be silenced with Blasphemy law.
Let us know what is the achievement of Army . they have been only troubling now and then the civilian Govt and had blocked economy jump starting. in a failing state it is surprising that the generals have become rich or very rich. how ?
It is said and believed that it is not the business of Govts to conduct businesses. They fail miserably. take Pakistan international airways., pakistan railways., pakistan power generation and distribution. as examples.
If that is so how can army be allowed to do business. mixed up priorities. the govt must stop this.
Humble request to the new chief. pl do not create a new adventure. people of pakistan cannot afford it anymore. nor we.
Pl believe that you cannot take back kashmir by fight and with shameless tactics of sending coolie mujaheddin any more. you cannot afford a full scale war. pl do not waste country’s meager resources. Mere smart uniform does not make a general. Brian power makes him remarkable . and remembered.
Tackle internal enemies. india will not embarrass your nation. we have better thinks to do. shortly india is going to vote out mediocre ministers. the next govt will be tough. yet it will not provoke. we want to send some more rockets to mars. we need money. we will not waste it on war with you. our people are brainy. they will not support a war.
all these are not written to embarrass . but to remind the task of the generals , is to help the civilian Govt ample time to plan and execute economic, health , educational reforms, so that people can walk with their head and shoulders high.
FATA, SWAT, KARACHI all needs army’s firm handling. As Sethi sab says The Time is now. do not waste it on India or Afghanistan. Both are sour grapes. The Americans also have learned abundant lessons. They will not waste their dollars on you anymore. They might soon say please handle it yourself. Take care. you must get a better name than even GEN kayani. God bless pakistan and us.
Wow: sethi Saab, there can be a revolution of change and transform the two countries the economic pillars and powers in SE. Asia if your ideas and Mr. Balachandaran are accepted by Pakistan Army,civilian government,opposition leaders of Pakisan and India.
Congratulation to you both.
It is high time that the Generals drop their anti India posture and divert their energies
to help the Govt for an all inclusive development of their Nation.The civilian Govt should work full measure with honest approach without any interference from Army
which should remain within their fortress only and not to fiddle with their democracy. Allow the democratically elected Govt to function with full might to nip the internal
evils in the bud. The new PM also needs to pick up the right threads and stop
calling shots about Kashmir; it will not help. Me Sethi has touched the right cords.
Difficult to see Pakistan getting out of this morass because it requires political will and strong leadership and as Mr. Sethi has pointed out and developments in the last few months, Nawaz Sharif has disappointed. Pakistan’s internal challenges are far too many and to overcome you need a very clear road map, which in fact holds up a mirror for every policy maker in Pakistan to see, and that road map indicates very tough decisions and in this surcharged and violent situation Nawaz Sharif looks unlikely to bell the change and take those tough decisions.
Dear Mr Sethi
Arguably you are most respectable individual in Pakistan I love to read or listen.
But your analysis of Pak Army playing a key role in Pakistan is always deficient.
Since Army is now on back foot, you people should analyze WHY army is valued in Pakistani eye and HOW it uses this factor to continue their dominance in politics.
First: These carefully cultivated non-state actors help military to have not only as foreign policy tool but more importantly to keep democracy in limbo and intervene when they desire. These non-state actors are in fact backed by state-actors.
Second: The mindset of Bhutto helped military to win the psyche of majority of Pakistanis. Butto dreamt of rulling or leading Islamic world by having A-Bomb. Islamic people value this notion of being a great power and immediately at home Pakistanis, whose ancestors were HINDUS, find that their new religion is great and they find themselves boosted when associated with USA or some block where money and weapon comes for free and they feel to counter India or Hindus. It is a typical approach of converts, to justify their new faith.
Army now uses this tool to control Pakistanis and also with less success at world politics. No cold war any more.
If govt kills these JUD, JeM people, it is Army who will oppose.
Mr Kayani introduced good/bad Taliban. Army has win-win situation with these actors.
First step to control military is to stop activities by JUD and likes. You will reduce military role to minimum.
Second step is to close all Madarshas, no new lost generation who can not even earn Rs 100 a day with such qualification.
Third step is to concentrate on governance, so that people don’t see Army as an option. Good governance should replace JUD likes.
Fourth step is to make Pakistan secular nation, otherwise this religion will be used to create havoc time and again with actors changed.
Otherwise India will continue to use Pak Army as tool to destroy Pakistan. All India need is to prick Army and back-step to keep Armys’ moral high and continue on path of self-destruction.