‘On June 18 2004, Taliban leader Nek Muhammad Wazir was killed in an airstrike. Pakistan was quick to claim credit. By 2006, there were reports that he was killed by a missile fired from a CIA-operated US drone, and the attack was requested by then-president Pervez Musharraf. It was the first drone attack in Pakistan.
American journalist Mark Mazzetti goes so far as to aver that the US agreed to execute Nek Muhammad on Pakistan’s request as part of a deal, in which Pakistan agreed to future drone strikes by the CIA targeting those declared ‘enemies of the state’ by US, but also to provide intelligence support for future drone attacks.
I cannot neither vouch for this accusation nor dispute it, but anything that happened in that era would not surprise me. It is fairly certain that between 2004 and 2008, drone strikes occurred with, at the very least, Pakistan’s permission. After that, although the government publicly opposed drone strikes, it continued to sanction them.
The CIA – which has the most sophisticated electronic intelligence in the world, but has lost its human intelligence ability since the Cold War era – outsourced its human intelligence to private contractors. I am among a minority holding the view that CIA is not an efficient intelligence agency, but it is doubtless a formidable machine of war.
A large number of these subcontractors started coming to Pakistan in 2005, but they needed time to cultivate sources and structure a command and control system. It was not until 2008 that they became effective.
During the period from 2004 to 2008, drone strikes had an appalling ratio of militant killings to civilian deaths. Although there are no definite statistics, I would put it around 1 to 10.
Starting somewhere around mid-2008, the ratio improved dramatically. By 2009, it had virtually turned around – 8 to 2, in my estimate.
Just as the military’s objections to drone strikes might have become audible, the success of these strikes silenced them. In his report for the BBC, Owen Bennett Jones noted that, support for drone strikes increased surprisingly as he approached ground zero. That is absolutely true for the period between 2008 and 10.
Among other repercussions, the Raymond Davis affair resulted in an ouster from Pakistan of all CIA sub-contractors in 2011.
Piqued by the development, Leon Panetta seemed to have punished Pakistan with two drone strikes immediately following Raymond Davis’ release in March 2011. One of them killed about 40 men, women, and children, attending a Jirga. That was the nadir of US drone attacks in Pakistan.
After that, the ratio of militant to civilian deaths began to deteriorate until it reached what it was before 2008. But there are intermittent instances of astounding, unexpected success.
Nawaz Sharif was elected in May this year with a hope that he will improve Pakistan’s economy, but I was worried about his security policy.
[quote]If drones are to be stopped, Pakistan’s leaders will have to demonstrates the will to shoot them down[/quote]
I am even more worried about his security policy now. My impression is that there is no real domestic security policy, let alone a policy on drone attacks. That Pakistani leadership lacks the will to take a firm stand with US is obvious. If drones are to be stopped, it can only happen if the political and military leadership demonstrates the will to shoot them down. That is virtually impossible for Pakistan even under a very determined leader.
Meanwhile, intermittent successes build support for drones.
Pakistan’s opposition to these strikes appears to be based on the nebulous concept of ‘national sovereignty’. Both the civilian leaders and the military seem uncertain of the position they want to take on drones. I do not foresee a change in this situation unless a new army chief is more confident of his position and is prepared to push it through with the civilian government.
The most likely possibility is that drone strikes will, in due course, steadily decrease in numbers until they virtually cease to occur. If this happens, it will not be because Pakistan made it happen, but because other external, international and domestic pressures forced the US to desist.
We are already seeing some of these forces at work.
Writer’s point of view is weighty. What matters is will of the political leadership which is poles apart. Drones hit has become an embarrassment for the US as it is being voiced by international community as “WAR CRIME”. In my opinion it won’t stop in the near future. As a result suiciding bombers will continue to increase because the tribal people are very possessive of their tribesmen and always go for revenge that passes from generation too generation. US should have learnt from the British failure of their Afghan policy.
Truly concluded.
OK let us imagine that drones have stopped. Americans have left Afganistan. No land to launch . india will not offer even an inch . peace deal signed with taliban. plush offices established. protocols defined. At what cost. pl examine…..
liberty of women going to school, their freedom of choice of dressing, banning of polio even for the handful of modern generation, approval for appointing, sacking ministers, generals, formulation of foreign policies, economic policies, trade, modernization of infrastructure, international relations….. you name it… all will have to be approved by 30 year old un educated, long bearded CASTRO looking monsters from the mountains.
singers, players, artists writers have to migrate to India
fair and bold editors have to migrate to USA
great Jinnah will come out and cry for creating pakistan
Wait and watch