Imran Khan claims that a "tsunami" of popular support is building up to sweep him into power. The first part of the statement may be correct but the second part is easier said than done. This is how the calculation works.

The "Imran phenomenon" is predominantly urban and youth-based. In Sindh, the rural areas are solidly pro-PPP because of the "ethnic factor" while Karachi remains in the grip of the MQM, partly on the basis of the "muhajir factor" and partly because of the "fear factor". Therefore Imran is not likely to make a dent there. Much the same fate awaits him in Balochistan. The Baloch are inclined to vote for the traditional mullahs, tribal chieftains or nationalists.

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa is less predictable. In urban areas, where anti-drone sentiment is high, the PTI may pick up some seats in a low scoring six way fight (PPP, JUI, JI, ANP, PMLN and PTI). But it will be business-as-usual in FATA where "independents" will side with the eventual government in Islamabad to butter their bread.

The Battle Royale will be in the Punjab where two factors will affect the outcome. The first is rural vs urban. In rural areas, the battle will be mainly between the PPP-PMLQ alliance and the PMLN (with or without the JI and other religious groups). In the urban, the PTI will take a slice of the PMLN in every constituency, either winning it or enabling the PPP-PMLQ to scramble past the post. The second is south vs centre-north. The former is a PPP stronghold while the latter tilts to the PMLN. The PPP has improved its prospects by supporting the demand for a Seraiki province. The big loser could be the PMLN without making the PTI a big winner.

These calculations are not rocket science. How then does Imran Khan expect to sweep the next election?

He is demanding an independent election commission for two main reasons: to revise the electoral lists to oust "bogus" pro PMLN or PPP voters and include the pro-IK urban youth that has become enfranchised by virtue of age; and debar pro-PPP or PMLN candidates whose credentials are marred by charges of corruption or unexplained acquisition of wealth, paving the way for a host of unknown Mr Cleans of the PTI.

It is a fair demand. But there is no way the PPP and PMLN will hand it over to him on a platter. What next?

In a recent TV interview, Imran Khan blurted out his strategy when he claimed that "last November the army chief sent a message to the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court" that he wouldn't stand by him in the event the court asked for its assistance under Article 190 to engineer the ouster of the Zardari government. Imran alleged that this amounted to a subversion of the constitution by the army chief and exhorted him to obey the dictates of the court if such an order was made in the future.

Clearly, Imran Khan is pinning his hopes on an army-judiciary move not just to oust the Zardari regime but to establish an interim government and permanent election commission and accountability process that sweeps aside the mainstream PPP and PMLN leaders, decimates their parties and paves the way for the PTI to emerge as the sole spokesman of Pakistan! Never mind if this is malafide. Never mind if it hammers another nail in the coffin of Pakistan by pushing the Sindhis into the ranks of the disgruntled Baloch. Never mind if it pitches the mainstream PPP and PMLN against the military when it is pitted against America, India, Pakistani Taliban and sectarian party terrorists in a bankrupt country.

A clutch of other anti-PPP and anti-PMLN hopefuls is inclined to endorse Imran Khan's strategy. These are either remnants of the ancien regime of General Pervez Musharraf - Like-Minded Group, Clean Group, Forward Blocs - who have not been able to find a suitably elevated home in the mainstream parties or those whose prospects of getting tickets in the two parties are slim. Many among this lot are prime ministerial hopefuls, which makes it difficult for them to sit on one platform without conspiring against one another. Efforts to forge an anti-PPP-PMLN alliance between the PTI, General Musharraf's APML and these non-afiliated groups are afoot. But the latter are keeping their options open until they know for sure which way the wind will blow.

The same strategy was followed a decade ago by the judiciary, army, orphaned politicians and ambitious technocrats in Bangladesh. But it crashed on the rocks of pride and prejudice, bringing the two popular but corrupt and incompetent Begums back to power. Today, Bangladesh, despite its many problems, is a vibrant economy and functioning democracy. Shouldn't we take a leaf from our erstwhile other half and abandon shortcuts to reinvent the cranky wheel of democracy all over again?

Comments (7 comments)

I agree with Najam. Imran intends to take over Pakistan with the help of army and judiciary which cannot happen in any time to come. If he has to survive in politics, he needs to grow which he is not prepared to. Shallow slogans cannot move nations. He has no program, no vision and no team. I was surprised to hear him speaking to Dunya TV about the reasons of his joining politics. He said that success story of his raising 70 crores for Shaukat Khanum Hospital and managing it subsequently encouraged and inspired him to manage Pakistan. He forgets that Pakistani people so generously donated for his dream project for a host of reasons, not because he is a superman. Insofar as the popular politics is concerned, he has already tried his luck. He may have to struggle for a long time to get a few seats. Briefly speaking, pitted against Zardari and Nawaz Sharief, he is no better than a cockroach.

Posted: Wednesday, August 10, 2011 by Murtaza Khan from Srinagar

Those that have the support of the establishment will succeed, but partially. Imran Khan with establishment support managed a darna against NATO supplies,but feeling success got carried away and bit the hand feeding him and criticised the army.The forces have a vast economic empire whose stakes are tied to govt policies.Will they ever let go and what happens when the COAS reaches close to retirement-----------------unheard of but another extension, or should he take the mantle?

Posted: Wednesday, August 10, 2011 by lawangeen from peshawar

Mr Sethi this is all part of the gyration of the cranky wheel of democracy. You seem to be vying to be one of the rocks upon which the efforts for a better, more honest, Pakistan is to crash . . . are you the rock of pride or of prejudice? Bangladesh cannot simply be compared with Pakistan - there are too many variables in the equation to draw the conclusion you have. It is a different tree with different leaves. What I don't understand is why you are satisfied with the status quo - do you like living in a corrupt country? Are you immune to the hopelessness of the majority of your fellow citizens? Please reply to me by email or in the comments section or in the next column. Thank you!

Posted: Monday, August 08, 2011 by Rafi from Karachi

I am sorry to say that from the his outbursts, I conclude that Imran sahib himself is not democratic but an autocrat. Pakistan needs true democrats for her survival and strength.

Posted: Friday, August 05, 2011 by Habib Sanai from Hala Old

The people of Pakistan are addicted to the corrupt system run by the wicked politicians. The worsening basic issues will be issueless when public votes democracy. Crooks will win again. Public will suffer as usual. But we should be hopeful.

Posted: Friday, August 05, 2011 by Nadeem Azeez from Kent, UK

To IMran Khan, I say, It's not pretentious to have lofty ideas, it becomes pretentious if you fail to express them in a convincing way and allow the audience see the mechanism by which you try to express the ideas. Instead of seeing the swan above the water line, you see the webbed feet madly paddling below water: But I agree with your statement that: Today, Bangladesh, despite its many problems, is a vibrant economy and functioning democracy. Shouldn't we take a leaf from our erstwhile other half and abandon shortcuts to reinvent the cranky wheel of democracy all over again?

Posted: Friday, August 05, 2011 by SharifL from Frankfurt, Germany

Imran Khan and PTI must be doing something right for you to devote some so much space to him. How reforming the electoral commission, cancelling bogus voters from electoral lists and disqualifying corrupt politicians would harm democracy is beyond me. Are all Sindhi politicians corrupt? Your editorial does them a great disservice

Posted: Friday, August 05, 2011 by Adhiti Dawani from Mumbai